CROATIA › HNL
17.05.2026 16:45
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Referee: A. Terzic
Istra 1961
Match Timeline
HNK Rijeka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Smail Prevljak
Istra 1961
🟨
43'
Branko Pavić
HNK Rijeka
🟨
43'
Alfonso Barco
HNK Rijeka
🟥
57'
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
HNK Rijeka
VAR
57'
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
HNK Rijeka
🔄
62'
A. Kadusic ↔ S. Gorican
Istra 1961
🔄
62'
M. Ndockyt ↔ J. Lasickas
HNK Rijeka
🔄
72'
N. Sepic ↔ M. Heister
Istra 1961
🔄
72'
A. Mauric ↔ V. Rozic
Istra 1961
🔄
83'
D. Ahmeti ↔ N. Skafar Zuzic
Istra 1961
🟨
84'
Marcel Heister
Istra 1961

Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Istra 1961 Win 32.1%
Draw 18.4%
HNK Rijeka Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Istra 19611.11
HNK Rijeka1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
WLDWL
64 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
19
BTTS Yes
21
18
Over 2.5
22
3.03
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 34 matches
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 50 matches
Istra 1961 Statistic HNK Rijeka
12 Wins 19
6 Draws 15
16 Losses 16
39 Goals For 64
48 Goals Against 53
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
19 BTTS Yes 21
26 Over 1.5 33
18 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 19
11 Failed To Score 17
3.03 Shots On Goal 3.84
10.06 Total Shots 12.28
4 Corners 5.04
47.8% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and HNK Rijeka's more proactive style and Istra 1961's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Istra 1961 have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Istra 1961 expected to line up in 3-4-3 and HNK Rijeka in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HNK Rijeka having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward HNK Rijeka. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Istra 1961 Analysis

Istra 1961 sit 5 with 42 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 39:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Prevljak (14 goals), S. Lawal (5 goals), E. Frederiksen (4 goals), with creative support from E. Frederiksen (6 assists), S. Loncar (6 assists), S. Prevljak (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

HNK Rijeka Analysis

HNK Rijeka come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 49 points from 34 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 47:36 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Fruk (12 goals), Tiago Dantas (7 goals), D. Adu Adjei (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Dantas (6 assists), Mladen Devetak (5 assists), A. Orec (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Istra 1961 won 3 times, HNK Rijeka won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:25 from Istra 1961's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
Predicted formations: Istra 1961 3-4-3 / HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Istra 1961 wins 3, draws 4, HNK Rijeka wins 8

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation