CROATIA HNL
19.09.2026 15:00
Stadion Aldo Drosina

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Istra 1961 Win 73%
Draw 5.2%
HNK Gorica Win 21.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Istra 19612.02
HNK Gorica1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
WWDLW
40 GF / 24 GA
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WLDWL
17 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2.5
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
13
BTTS Yes
7
14
Over 2.5
6
4.14
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 16 matches
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 16 matches
Istra 1961 Statistic HNK Gorica
7 Wins 5
7 Draws 3
2 Losses 8
40 Goals For 17
24 Goals Against 21
2.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
13 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 12
14 Over 2.5 6
11 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 6
4.14 Shots On Goal 2.71
12.29 Total Shots 9.43
4.43 Corners 2.57
46.3% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Istra 1961's more proactive style and HNK Gorica's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward HNK Gorica. Istra 1961 arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 6 points compared to HNK Gorica in 10 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HNK Gorica arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Istra 1961 Analysis

Istra 1961 are currently 6 in the standings with 6 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Frederiksen (4 goals), H. Jaganjac (1 goals), D. Ahmeti (1 goals), with creative support from H. Jaganjac (1 assists), D. Ahmeti (1 assists), N. Skafar Zuzic (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

HNK Gorica Analysis

With 1 points from 6 games and a place of 10, HNK Gorica still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 2:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Bogojević (2 goals), with creative support from L. Vrzić (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Istra 1961 won 4 times, HNK Gorica won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:17 from Istra 1961's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Istra 1961 4-2-3-1 / HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Istra 1961 wins 4, draws 3, HNK Gorica wins 8

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 16:5 11 16
W W W W W
2 7 5 0 2 17:11 6 15
W L W L W
3 7 4 2 1 13:7 6 14
D D W L W
4 6 4 1 1 14:7 7 13
L W D W W
5 6 3 2 1 10:7 3 11
D W D W L
6 7 2 3 2 14:12 2 9
W D D L W
7 7 2 1 4 9:13 -4 7
D L L L L
8 7 2 0 5 5:14 -9 6
L W L W L
9 7 1 0 6 8:22 -14 3
L L L W L
10 7 0 2 5 4:12 -8 2
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL