ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Portman Road
Referee: G. Ward
Ipswich
Match Timeline
QPR
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
G. Hirst
Ipswich
9'
J. Philogene · Assist: G. Hirst
Ipswich
🟨
46'
Darnell Furlong
Ipswich
🔄
46'
N. Madsen ↔ P. Smyth
QPR
🔄
46'
J. Clarke-Salter ↔ T. Smith
QPR
🔄
62'
J. Philogene ↔ J. Clarke
Ipswich
🔄
62'
I. Chair ↔ K. Saito
QPR
🔄
63'
W. Burns ↔ K. McAteer
Ipswich
🔄
70'
G. Hirst ↔ I. Azon
Ipswich
🔄
71'
M. Nunez ↔ A. Mehmeti
Ipswich
🟨
76'
Leif Davis
Ipswich
🟨
79'
Paul Smyth
QPR
🔄
80'
K. Morgan ↔ I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
QPR
🔄
85'
D. Bennie ↔ L. Scarlett
QPR
85'
K. McAteer
Ipswich
🔄
86'
J. Taylor ↔ D. Neil
Ipswich

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ipswich Win 81.9%
Draw 5.3%
QPR Win 12.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ipswich1.64
QPR1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ipswich Ipswich
WWDLW
79 GF / 49 GA
QPR QPR
WLDWL
62 GF / 72 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
27
BTTS Yes
30
24
Over 2.5
29
5.02
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ipswich Ipswich 47 matches
QPR QPR 46 matches
Ipswich Statistic QPR
23 Wins 16
15 Draws 10
9 Losses 20
79 Goals For 62
49 Goals Against 72
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
27 BTTS Yes 30
39 Over 1.5 35
24 Over 2.5 29
12 Over 3.5 17
16 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 12
5.02 Shots On Goal 4.07
15.32 Total Shots 12.65
5.89 Corners 4.85
56.4% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Ipswich's more proactive style and QPR's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward QPR. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. QPR arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ipswich expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and QPR in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward QPR having the stronger overall control. Ipswich arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 81 points compared to QPR in 14 on 58, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Ipswich Analysis

Ipswich arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 81 points after 45 matches. Their overall return of 22 wins, 15 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 77:47 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Clarke (16 goals), J. Philogene (11 goals), G. Hirst (10 goals), with creative support from I. Azon (4 assists), L. Davis (4 assists), Conor Chaplin (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 13 wins, 8 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

QPR Analysis

QPR sit 14 with 58 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 10 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 61:70 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Burrell (10 goals), R. Kone (10 goals), P. Smyth (6 goals), with creative support from N. Madsen (6 assists), H. Vale (5 assists), B. Whiteman (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ipswich won 5 times, QPR won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from Ipswich's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Ipswich 4-2-3-1 / QPR 4-4-2
H2H summary: Ipswich wins 5, draws 2, QPR wins 7
Stats
Ipswich Ipswich
QPR QPR
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
5
4 Corner Kicks 2
8 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 5
10 Shots insidebox 8
4 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
434 Total passes 398
356 Passes accurate 313
2.53 expected_goals 0.84
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Ipswich
Formation
QPR
C. Walton
C. Walton
D. Furlong
D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
J. Greaves
L. Davis
L. Davis
A. Matusiwa
A. Matusiwa
J. Taylor
J. Taylor
W. Burns
W. Burns
M. Nunez
M. Nunez
J. Philogene
J. Philogene
G. Hirst
🎯
G. Hirst
J. Walsh
J. Walsh
A. S. Mbengue
A. S. Mbengue
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
J. Clarke-Salter
J. Clarke-Salter
R. Norrington-Davies
R. Norrington-Davies
H. Vale
H. Vale
J. Varane
J. Varane
K. Morgan
K. Morgan
I. Chair
I. Chair
D. Bennie
D. Bennie
N. Madsen
N. Madsen
Ipswich 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
C. Walton
G
19
D. Furlong
🟨 46'
D
26
D. O'Shea
D
24
J. Greaves
D
3
L. Davis
🟨 76'
D
5
A. Matusiwa
M
14
J. Taylor
↓ 86'
M
7
W. Burns
↓ 63'
M
32
M. Nunez
↓ 71'
M
11
J. Philogene
⚽ 9' ↓ 62'
M
9
G. Hirst
⚽ 3' 🎯 9' ↓ 70'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Palmer
G
18
B. Johnson
D
4
C. Kipre
D
47
J. Clarke
↑ 62'
F
20
K. McAteer
⚽ 85' ↑ 63'
M
33
A. Mehmeti
↑ 71'
M
29
C. Akpom
F
6
D. Neil
↑ 86'
M
31
I. Azon
↑ 70'
F
QPR 4-4-2
Starting XI
13
J. Walsh
G
27
A. S. Mbengue
D
37
R. Edwards
D
6
J. Clarke-Salter
↓ 46'
D
18
R. Norrington-Davies
D
20
H. Vale
M
40
J. Varane
M
21
K. Morgan
↓ 80'
M
10
I. Chair
↓ 62'
M
23
D. Bennie
↓ 85'
F
24
N. Madsen
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
32
M. Salamon
G
14
K. Saito
↑ 62'
F
2
K. Adamson
D
28
Esquerdinha
D
52
L. Scarlett
↑ 85'
F
15
I. Hayden
M
11
P. Smyth
↑ 46' 🟨 79'
F
48
I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
↑ 80'
M
30
T. Smith
↑ 46'
D
Last matches: Ipswich
28.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Southampton
2
2
D
25.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
2
1
W
19.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
14.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Birmingham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
3
3
D
07.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
1
D
03.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
3
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
3
5
L
13.02.26
FA
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Derby
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Preston
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
20.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Bristol City
2
0
W
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
25.04.26
Cha
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
21.04.26
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
QPR
Millwall
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
H2H: Ipswich vs QPR
02.05.26
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
01.11.25
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
1
4
W
29.12.23
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
19.08.23
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
0
1
W
26.12.18
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
3
0
L
20.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
2
L
26.12.17
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
09.09.17
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
2
1
L
02.01.17
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
2
1
L
26.11.16
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
06.02.16
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
1
0
L
26.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
2
1
W
11.01.14
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
1
3
L
17.08.13
H2H
QPR
Ipswich
1
0
L
Last matches: Ipswich
19.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
06.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Birmingham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
1
1
D
07.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
1
D
03.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
3
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Preston
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Bristol City
2
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Blackburn
3
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Ipswich
Blackpool
2
1
W
01.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Oxford United
2
1
W
20.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
10.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
1
0
W
06.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Coventry
3
0
W
22.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
0
D
04.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
0
3
L
05.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
3
1
W
27.09.25
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
2
1
W
H2H at home: Ipswich
02.05.26
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
29.12.23
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
20.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
2
L
26.12.17
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
26.11.16
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
26.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
2
1
W
11.01.14
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
1
3
L
Last matches: QPR
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
18.04.26
Cha
QPR
Millwall
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
20.01.26
Cha
QPR
Oxford United
0
0
D
17.01.26
Cha
QPR
Stoke City
0
0
D
11.01.26
FA
QPR
West Ham
1
2
L
29.12.25
Cha
QPR
West Brom
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
1
1
D
13.12.25
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
1
3
L
29.11.25
Cha
QPR
Norwich
1
3
L
26.11.25
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
0
D
25.10.25
Cha
QPR
Derby
0
1
L
22.10.25
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
0
W
H2H away: QPR
02.05.26
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
L
29.12.23
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
20.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
2
W
26.12.17
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
0
0
D
26.11.16
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
L
26.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
2
1
L
11.01.14
H2H
Ipswich
QPR
1
3
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR Away
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation