BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ipatinga Win 43.4%
Draw 21.9%
Vitória ES Win 34.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ipatinga1.04
Vitória ES1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ipatinga Ipatinga
WWDLW
12 GF / 9 GA
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WLDWL
12 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
5
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ipatinga Ipatinga 10 matches
Vitória ES Vitória ES 10 matches
Ipatinga Statistic Vitória ES
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
12 Goals For 12
9 Goals Against 8
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
5 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Vitória ES. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vitória ES having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ipatinga Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ipatinga arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 15 points after 10 matches. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 12:9, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Paulo Henrique (3 goals), Erick Salles (2 goals), Giovani (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Vitória ES Analysis

Vitória ES enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 3 in their league. The return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Patrick (3 goals), Tony (3 goals), Araujo (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Last matches: Ipatinga
14.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
0
W
18.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
1
1
D
Last matches: Vitória ES
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
Last matches: Ipatinga
14.06.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Operario Ferroviario
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Ivinhema
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ipatinga
CRAC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
Uberlandia
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Ipatinga
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
0
W
Last matches: Vitória ES
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)