ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: K. Bonacina
Inter
Match Timeline
Parma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
M. Thuram · Assist: P. Zielinski
Inter
🔄
46'
F. Esposito ↔ A. Bonny
Inter
🟨
64'
Piotr Zieliński
Inter
🔄
66'
P. Zielinski ↔ H. Mkhitaryan
Inter
🔄
66'
M. Thuram ↔ L. Martinez
Inter
🔄
66'
A. Bastoni ↔ Carlos Augusto
Inter
🔄
67'
M. Keita ↔ C. Ordonez
Parma
🔄
67'
M. Pellegrino ↔ N. Elphege
Parma
🔄
75'
G. Strefezza ↔ P. Almqvist
Parma
🔄
75'
A. Bernabe ↔ O. Sorensen
Parma
80'
H. Mkhitaryan · Assist: L. Martinez
Inter
🔄
85'
E. Valeri ↔ F. Carboni
Parma
🔄
89'
N. Barella ↔ D. Frattesi
Inter

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Inter Win 75.9%
Draw 0%
Parma Win 24.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter1.8
Parma0.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Inter
WWDLW
108 GF / 48 GA
Parma Parma
WLDWL
30 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
2.2
Average Goals Scored
0.81
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
25
BTTS Yes
16
29
Over 2.5
12
5.92
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Inter 49 matches
Parma Parma 37 matches
Inter Statistic Parma
33 Wins 11
6 Draws 13
10 Losses 13
108 Goals For 30
48 Goals Against 44
2.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
25 BTTS Yes 16
41 Over 1.5 23
29 Over 2.5 12
18 Over 3.5 6
21 Clean Sheets 13
4 Failed To Score 14
5.92 Shots On Goal 3.11
17.22 Total Shots 11.16
6.16 Corners 4.03
58.9% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter's more proactive style and Parma's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Parma. Inter arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 79 points compared to Parma in 12 on 42, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Inter Analysis

Inter approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 79 points after 34 outings. The return of 25 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 80:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through L. Martinez (16 goals), M. Thuram (12 goals), H. Calhanoglu (9 goals), with creative support from F. Dimarco (17 assists), N. Barella (7 assists), M. Thuram (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 13 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Parma Analysis

Parma are currently 12 in the standings with 42 points from 34 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 25:40 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benedyczak (2 assists), G. Strefezza (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Inter won 9 times, Parma won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:14 from Inter's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Inter 3-5-2 / Parma 3-5-2
Missing players: Inter 2, Parma 2
H2H summary: Inter wins 9, draws 4, Parma wins 2
Stats
Inter Inter
Parma Parma
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Goal 0
5 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 3
1 Shots outsidebox 1
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
581 Total passes 420
534 Passes accurate 372
2.09 expected_goals 0.27
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Inter
Formation
Parma
Y. Sommer
Y. Sommer
Y. Bisseck
Y. Bisseck
M. Akanji
M. Akanji
A. Bastoni
A. Bastoni
D. Dumfries
D. Dumfries
N. Barella
N. Barella
P. Zielinski
🎯
P. Zielinski
P. Sucic
P. Sucic
F. Dimarco
F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
M. Thuram
F. Esposito
F. Esposito
Z. Suzuki
Z. Suzuki
A. Circati
A. Circati
M. Troilo
M. Troilo
A. Ndiaye
A. Ndiaye
E. Delprato
E. Delprato
A. Bernabe
A. Bernabe
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M. Keita
M. Keita
E. Valeri
E. Valeri
G. Strefezza
G. Strefezza
M. Pellegrino
M. Pellegrino
Inter 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
Y. Sommer
G
31
Y. Bisseck
D
25
M. Akanji
D
95
A. Bastoni
↓ 66'
D
2
D. Dumfries
M
23
N. Barella
↓ 89'
M
7
P. Zielinski
🎯 45' ↓ 66' 🟨 64'
M
8
P. Sucic
M
32
F. Dimarco
M
9
M. Thuram
⚽ 45' ↓ 66'
F
94
F. Esposito
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
12
R. Di Gennaro
G
13
J. Martinez
G
36
M. Darmian
D
22
H. Mkhitaryan
⚽ 80' ↑ 66'
M
6
S. de Vrij
D
16
D. Frattesi
↑ 89'
M
17
A. Diouf
M
43
M. Cocchi
D
48
M. Mosconi
F
15
F. Acerbi
D
20
H. Calhanoglu
M
10
L. Martinez
🎯 80' ↑ 66'
F
30
Carlos Augusto
↑ 66'
D
11
Luis Henrique
F
14
A. Bonny
↑ 46'
F
Parma 3-5-2
Starting XI
31
Z. Suzuki
G
39
A. Circati
D
37
M. Troilo
D
3
A. Ndiaye
D
15
E. Delprato
M
10
A. Bernabe
↓ 75'
M
41
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M
16
M. Keita
↓ 67'
M
14
E. Valeri
↓ 85'
M
7
G. Strefezza
↓ 75'
F
9
M. Pellegrino
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
40
E. Corvi
G
66
F. Rinaldi
G
8
N. Estevez
M
11
P. Almqvist
↑ 75'
F
21
G. Oristanio
M
17
J. Ondrejka
F
24
C. Ordonez
↑ 67'
M
23
N. Elphege
↑ 67'
F
5
L. Valenti
D
22
O. Sorensen
↑ 75'
M
29
F. Carboni
↑ 85'
D
27
S. Britschgi
D
Last matches: Inter
23.05.26
Ser
Inter
Bologna
3
3
D
17.05.26
Ser
Inter
Hellas Verona
1
1
D
13.05.26
Cop
Inter
Lazio
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Inter
Lazio
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Inter
Torino
2
2
D
21.04.26
Cop
Inter
Como
3
2
W
17.04.26
Ser
Inter
Cagliari
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Inter
Como
4
3
W
05.04.26
Ser
Inter
AS Roma
5
2
W
22.03.26
Ser
Inter
Fiorentina
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Inter
Atalanta
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Inter
AC Milan
0
1
L
03.03.26
Cop
Inter
Como
0
0
D
28.02.26
Ser
Inter
Genoa
2
0
W
24.02.26
UEF
Inter
Bodo/Glimt
1
2
L
21.02.26
Ser
Inter
Lecce
2
0
W
18.02.26
UEF
Inter
Bodo/Glimt
1
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Inter
Juventus
3
2
W
08.02.26
Ser
Inter
Sassuolo
5
0
W
04.02.26
Cop
Inter
Torino
2
1
W
Last matches: Parma
24.05.26
Ser
Parma
Sassuolo
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Parma
Como
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Parma
AS Roma
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Parma
Pisa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Parma
Udinese
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Parma
Napoli
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Parma
Lazio
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Parma
Cremonese
0
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
Parma
Torino
1
4
L
08.03.26
Ser
Parma
Fiorentina
0
0
D
27.02.26
Ser
Parma
Cagliari
1
1
D
22.02.26
Ser
Parma
AC Milan
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Parma
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Parma
Bologna
1
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Parma
Juventus
1
4
L
25.01.26
Ser
Parma
Atalanta
0
4
L
18.01.26
Ser
Parma
Genoa
0
0
D
14.01.26
Ser
Parma
Napoli
0
0
D
11.01.26
Ser
Parma
Lecce
2
1
W
07.01.26
Ser
Parma
Inter
0
2
L
H2H: Inter vs Parma
03.05.26
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
0
W
07.01.26
H2H
Parma
Inter
0
2
W
05.04.25
H2H
Parma
Inter
2
2
D
06.12.24
H2H
Inter
Parma
3
1
W
10.01.23
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
1
W
08.08.21
H2H
Parma
Inter
0
2
W
04.03.21
H2H
Parma
Inter
1
2
W
31.10.20
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
28.06.20
H2H
Parma
Inter
1
2
W
26.10.19
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
09.02.19
H2H
Parma
Inter
0
1
W
15.09.18
H2H
Inter
Parma
0
1
L
04.04.15
H2H
Inter
Parma
1
1
D
01.11.14
H2H
Parma
Inter
2
0
L
19.04.14
H2H
Parma
Inter
0
2
W
Last matches: Inter
17.05.26
Ser
Inter
Hellas Verona
1
1
D
21.04.26
Cop
Inter
Como
3
2
W
17.04.26
Ser
Inter
Cagliari
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Inter
AS Roma
5
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Inter
Atalanta
1
1
D
28.02.26
Ser
Inter
Genoa
2
0
W
24.02.26
UEF
Inter
Bodo/Glimt
1
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Inter
Juventus
3
2
W
04.02.26
Cop
Inter
Torino
2
1
W
23.01.26
Ser
Inter
Pisa
6
2
W
20.01.26
UEF
Inter
Arsenal
1
3
L
14.01.26
Ser
Inter
Lecce
1
0
W
11.01.26
Ser
Inter
Napoli
2
2
D
04.01.26
Ser
Inter
Bologna
3
1
W
09.12.25
UEF
Inter
Liverpool
0
1
L
06.12.25
Ser
Inter
Como
4
0
W
03.12.25
Cop
Inter
Venezia
5
1
W
23.11.25
Ser
Inter
AC Milan
0
1
L
09.11.25
Ser
Inter
Lazio
2
0
W
05.11.25
UEF
Inter
Kairat Almaty
2
1
W
H2H at home: Inter
03.05.26
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
0
W
06.12.24
H2H
Inter
Parma
3
1
W
10.01.23
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
1
W
31.10.20
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
26.10.19
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
15.09.18
H2H
Inter
Parma
0
1
L
04.04.15
H2H
Inter
Parma
1
1
D
Last matches: Parma
17.05.26
Ser
Parma
Como
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Parma
Udinese
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Parma
Lazio
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Parma
Torino
1
4
L
08.03.26
Ser
Parma
Fiorentina
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Parma
AC Milan
1
0
W
08.02.26
Ser
Parma
Bologna
1
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Parma
Atalanta
0
4
L
14.01.26
Ser
Parma
Napoli
0
0
D
11.01.26
Ser
Parma
Lecce
2
1
W
03.01.26
Ser
Parma
Sassuolo
1
1
D
08.12.25
Ser
Parma
Pisa
1
0
W
04.12.25
Cop
Parma
Bologna
1
2
L
23.11.25
Ser
Parma
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
29.10.25
Ser
Parma
AS Roma
1
2
L
19.10.25
Ser
Parma
Genoa
0
0
D
21.09.25
Ser
Parma
Cremonese
0
0
D
13.09.25
Ser
Parma
Cagliari
0
2
L
24.08.25
Ser
Parma
Juventus
0
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Parma
Atalanta
3
2
W
H2H away: Parma
03.05.26
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
0
L
06.12.24
H2H
Inter
Parma
3
1
L
10.01.23
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
1
L
31.10.20
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
26.10.19
H2H
Inter
Parma
2
2
D
15.09.18
H2H
Inter
Parma
0
1
W
04.04.15
H2H
Inter
Parma
1
1
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Inter Home
38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Away
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L

Missing Players

Inter 2 missing
-
H. Calhanoglu
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Luis Henrique
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
Parma 2 missing
-
B. Cremaschi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Frigan
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT