🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.08.2026 23:30
Nu Stadium
Referee: I. Elfath
Inter Miami
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
26'
G. Lujan ↔ F. Mura
Inter Miami
🟨
37'
Richie Laryea
Toronto FC
🟨
53'
Maximiliano Falcón
Inter Miami
🔄
58'
S. Reguilon ↔ N. Allen
Inter Miami
59'
J. Sargent · Assist: D. Salloi
Toronto FC
62'
D. Etienne
Toronto FC
🔄
65'
D. Salloi ↔ Matheus Pereira
Toronto FC
🔄
73'
Casemiro ↔ D. Ayala
Inter Miami
🔄
73'
T. Segovia ↔ D. Pinter
Inter Miami
🔄
73'
L. Suarez ↔ L. Delinois
Inter Miami
🔄
77'
J. Sargent ↔ T. Corbeanu
Toronto FC
82'
L. Messi · Assist: R. de Paul
Inter Miami
🔄
86'
D. Etienne ↔ J. Gilman
Toronto FC
🔄
87'
D. Mihailovic ↔ N. Gomis
Toronto FC
🟨
90+5'
David Ayala
Inter Miami

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Inter Miami Win 79.4%
Draw 4.5%
Toronto FC Win 16.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Miami1.93
Toronto FC1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WWDLW
55 GF / 46 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
39 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
2.12
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
19
BTTS Yes
19
19
Over 2.5
16
5.77
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Miami Inter Miami 26 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 25 matches
Inter Miami Statistic Toronto FC
13 Wins 7
9 Draws 10
4 Losses 8
55 Goals For 39
46 Goals Against 41
2.12 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
19 BTTS Yes 19
23 Over 1.5 21
19 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
5.77 Shots On Goal 4.25
14.5 Total Shots 11.6
5.18 Corners 5.2
54.9% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Inter Miami's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Inter Miami arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 38 points compared to Toronto FC in 12 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toronto FC. Inter Miami come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Inter Miami expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Toronto FC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toronto FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Inter Miami Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 38 points from 18 games, Inter Miami bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 45:32, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Lionel Messi (8 goals), Luis Suárez (8 goals), Germán Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from Lionel Messi (7 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (4 assists), Germán Berterame (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 17 points from 18 matches. The record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 24:32 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Inter Miami won 10 times, Toronto FC won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:14 from Inter Miami's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Inter Miami 4-4-2 / Toronto FC 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Inter Miami 6, Toronto FC 6
H2H summary: Inter Miami wins 10, draws 2, Toronto FC wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)