🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
29.08.2026 23:30
Nu Stadium
Referee: E. Arreguin
Inter Miami
Match Timeline
CF Montreal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
I. Fray
Inter Miami
20'
Casemiro · Assist: T. Segovia
Inter Miami
🟨
35'
F. Herbers
CF Montreal
37'
F. Herbers · Assist: N. Streit
CF Montreal
🟨
39'
N. Streit
CF Montreal
40'
L. Messi
Inter Miami
52'
L. Messi
Inter Miami
🔄
59'
S. Piette ↔ D. Pereira
CF Montreal
🔄
59'
G. Synchuk ↔ D. Sealy
CF Montreal
🔄
60'
F. Herbers ↔ A. Sanchez
CF Montreal
🔄
76'
T. Segovia ↔ A. Shaw
Inter Miami
80'
L. Suarez · Assist: L. Messi
Inter Miami
83'
L. Messi · Assist: R. de Paul
Inter Miami
🔄
84'
N. Streit ↔ B. Craig
CF Montreal
🔄
84'
J. Neal ↔ W. Carmona
CF Montreal
🔄
86'
I. Fray ↔ F. Mura
Inter Miami
🔄
86'
N. Allen ↔ C. Abadia-Reda
Inter Miami
89'
A. Shaw
Inter Miami
90'
L. Messi
Inter Miami

Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.38
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.25
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
1.38
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.25
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.8%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Inter Miami Win 76.3%
Draw 4.3%
CF Montreal Win 19.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Miami2.01
CF Montreal1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WWDLW
56 GF / 48 GA
CF Montreal CF Montreal
WLDWL
39 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.92
20
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
18
5.65
Shots on Goal
4.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Miami Inter Miami 27 matches
CF Montreal CF Montreal 26 matches
Inter Miami Statistic CF Montreal
13 Wins 7
9 Draws 6
5 Losses 13
56 Goals For 39
48 Goals Against 50
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.92
20 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 22
20 Over 2.5 18
14 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 8
5.65 Shots On Goal 4.95
14.3 Total Shots 13.52
5.09 Corners 5.14
55.2% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter Miami's more proactive style and CF Montreal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring CF Montreal. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Inter Miami arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 39 points compared to CF Montreal in 14 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Inter Miami Analysis

Placed 2 with 39 points from 20 outings, Inter Miami continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, while the 48:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Lionel Messi (8 goals), Luis Suárez (8 goals), Germán Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from Lionel Messi (7 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (4 assists), Germán Berterame (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

CF Montreal Analysis

With 20 points from 20 games and a place of 14, CF Montreal still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 27:37, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Prince Owusu (5 goals), Matthew Longstaff (2 goals), Daniel Rios (2 goals), with creative support from Prince Owusu (5 assists), Matthew Longstaff (3 assists), Victor Loturi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Inter Miami won 6 times, CF Montreal won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:22 from Inter Miami's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Inter Miami 4-3-3 / CF Montreal 4-3-3
Missing players: Inter Miami 7, CF Montreal 6
H2H summary: Inter Miami wins 6, draws 1, CF Montreal wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)