02.10.2026 22:15
Libertadores de America
Referee: Hernan Mastrangelo
Independiente
Match Timeline
Instituto Cordoba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Matías Tissera
Instituto Cordoba
⚽
16'
Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro · Assist: Matías Tissera
Instituto Cordoba
🟨
21'
Leonel Mosevich
Instituto Cordoba
⚽
22'
Maximiliano Meza · Assist: Santiago Gabriel Montiel
Independiente
VAR
23'
Maximiliano Meza
Independiente
🟨
29'
Iván Marcone
Independiente
🟨
40'
Maximiliano Meza
Independiente
🟨
40'
Marcos Ledesma
Instituto Cordoba
🟥
44'
Maximiliano Meza
Independiente
🔄
45'
Giuliano Cerato ↔ Hernán De La Fuente
Instituto Cordoba
⚽
51'
Hernán De La Fuente
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
62'
Ramiro Martino ↔ Nahuel Banegas
Independiente
🔄
62'
Matías Abaldo ↔ Lautaro Millán
Independiente
⚽
65'
Matías Gallardo
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
66'
Matías Tissera ↔ Facundo Ezquel Suarez
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
73'
Mateo Pérez Curci ↔ Felipe Tempone
Independiente
⚽
80'
Alex Luna · Assist: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
81'
Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro ↔ Lucas Martín Sanseviero Pérez
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
81'
Gustavo Abregú ↔ Juan Ignacio Méndez
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
87'
Matías Gallardo ↔ Jonas Acevedo
Instituto Cordoba
🔄
87'
Iván Morales ↔ Chimy Ávila
Independiente
🔄
88'
Leonardo Godoy ↔ Santiago Arias
Independiente
🟨
90+2'
Santiago Arias
Independiente

Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds 3.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.2%
3.29 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.05 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.80 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente Win 40.5%
Draw 6.4%
Instituto Cordoba Win 53.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente1.18
Instituto Cordoba1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Independiente
WWDLW
41 GF / 37 GA
Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba
WLDWL
35 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
16
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
10
4
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Independiente 30 matches
Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba 29 matches
Independiente Statistic Instituto Cordoba
13 Wins 15
8 Draws 5
9 Losses 9
41 Goals For 35
37 Goals Against 26
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
16 BTTS Yes 13
23 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 7
4 Shots On Goal 4.35
12.81 Total Shots 13.69
5.81 Corners 5.15
52.6% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Independiente's more proactive style and Instituto Cordoba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Instituto Cordoba. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Instituto Cordoba in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Instituto Cordoba having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Independiente continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 24:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Santiago Montiel (3 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (3 goals), with creative support from Santiago Montiel (3 assists), Matías Abaldo (3 assists), Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Instituto Cordoba Analysis

Instituto Cordoba are currently 9 in the standings with 21 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 17:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Giuliano Cerato (4 goals), Leonel Mosevich (2 goals), Fernando Alarcón (2 goals), with creative support from Gustavo Abregú (3 assists), Alex Luna (3 assists), Gastón Lodico (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Independiente won 4 times, Instituto Cordoba won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:8 from Independiente's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Independiente 4-3-3 / Instituto Cordoba 3-4-3
H2H summary: Independiente wins 4, draws 3, Instituto Cordoba wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L W L D L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W W W D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W D W D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L W L D D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W W L D
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L D W L D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W W W L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
D W L W W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
D L D W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L L D L W
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D L L D L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W D D D W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D L D D D
Knockout Phase