30.08.2026 22:15
Libertadores de America
Referee: Sebastian Zunino
Independiente
Match Timeline
Gimnasia M.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Luciano Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
🟨
38'
Leonardo Godoy
Independiente
42'
E. Fernandez · Assist: F. Lencioni
Gimnasia M.
53'
F. Lencioni · Assist: E. Fernandez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
59'
M. Gutierrez ↔ C. Avila
Independiente
🔄
59'
J. Palais ↔ M. Abaldo
Independiente
60'
F. Lencioni · Assist: E. Fernandez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
63'
E. Fernandez ↔ B. Andrada
Gimnasia M.
🔄
63'
L. Cingolani ↔ M. Vargas
Gimnasia M.
🔄
65'
A. Modica ↔ I. Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
77'
L. Godoy ↔ J. Fedorco
Independiente
🔄
77'
L. Millan ↔ M. Meza
Independiente
🔄
79'
F. Antonini ↔ N. Barboza
Gimnasia M.
🔄
79'
T. O'Connor ↔ S. Rodriguez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
87'
F. Zabala ↔ R. Martino
Independiente

Independiente vs Gimnasia M. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
1.62
BTTS Yes
58.2%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.14
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Independiente Win 68.2%
Draw 9.6%
Gimnasia M. Win 22.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente1.32
Gimnasia M.1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Independiente
WWDLW
37 GF / 32 GA
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WLDWL
23 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
14
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
8
3.96
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Independiente 26 matches
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 23 matches
Independiente Statistic Gimnasia M.
11 Wins 9
7 Draws 5
8 Losses 9
37 Goals For 23
32 Goals Against 27
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
14 BTTS Yes 10
20 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 8
3.96 Shots On Goal 3.91
12.87 Total Shots 11.32
6.04 Corners 3.64
52.4% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Independiente's more proactive style and Gimnasia M.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gimnasia M.. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 24 points after 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (3 goals), Lautaro Millán (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

Gimnasia M. are currently 11 in the standings with 19 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 14:22 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Agustín Modica (8 goals), Luciano Cingolani (2 goals), Facundo Lencioni (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Lencioni (2 assists), Ignacio Sabatini (2 assists), Tomás O'Connor (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Independiente won 1 times, Gimnasia M. won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Independiente's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Independiente 4-1-4-1 / Gimnasia M. 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Independiente wins 1, draws 1, Gimnasia M. wins 0

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase