04.08.2026 22:00
Referee: J. Revollo
Independiente Petrolero
Match Timeline
Aurora
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Willie · Assist: G. Cristaldo
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
31'
L. Crescencio
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
45'
R. Zamora
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
46'
R. Cardozo ↔ G. Alvarez
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
46'
Gean ↔ Jeferson Carioca
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
46'
I. Vidaurre ↔ H. Vaca
Aurora
🟥
55'
G. Alvarez
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
68'
G. Cristaldo ↔ L. Rodriguez
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
72'
J. Gutierrez
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
72'
D. Navarro ↔ L. Palma
Independiente Petrolero
🟥
77'
L. Barro
Aurora
79'
M. Ortiz · Assist: L. Barboza
Aurora
🔄
85'
D. Rojas ↔ J. Bejarano
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
87'
A. Terrazas ↔ H. Mojica
Aurora
🔄
87'
E. Sanchez ↔ I. Huayhuata
Aurora
🟨
90+5'
H. Vaca
Aurora
🔄
90+4'
M. Rangel ↔ S. Rojas
Aurora

Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.2%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente Petrolero Win 34.8%
Draw 15%
Aurora Win 50.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Petrolero1.32
Aurora1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero
WWDLW
18 GF / 24 GA
Aurora Aurora
WLDWL
23 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
9
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
6
2.5
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 14 matches
Aurora Aurora 14 matches
Independiente Petrolero Statistic Aurora
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 7
7 Losses 2
18 Goals For 23
24 Goals Against 19
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
9 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 2
2.5 Shots On Goal 3.33
5.75 Total Shots 9
2.08 Corners 2.67
22.8% Ball Possession 34.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Aurora's more proactive style and Independiente Petrolero's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente Petrolero have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Aurora. Aurora carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 20 points while Independiente Petrolero sit 11 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aurora having the stronger overall control.

Independiente Petrolero Analysis

Independiente Petrolero sit 11 with 12 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aurora Analysis

Aurora come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 20 points after 11 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, with a 19:13 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Petrolero won 4 times, Aurora won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Independiente Petrolero's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Petrolero 4-4-2 / Aurora 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente Petrolero wins 4, draws 3, Aurora wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 6 1 47:13 34 45
W W W D D
2 20 14 3 3 54:22 32 45
W W W W W
3 20 12 6 2 39:22 17 42
W W W W W
4 20 8 8 4 27:14 13 32
W W D L D
5 20 9 3 8 36:27 9 30
W L L D W
6 20 7 9 4 31:27 4 30
L W W D D
7 20 8 5 7 32:39 -7 29
W L D L D
8 20 6 9 5 30:22 8 27
D W L D D
9 20 8 3 9 30:28 2 27
L W W L W
10 20 7 4 9 27:35 -8 25
L L L W L
11 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L L W D L
12 20 6 2 12 31:45 -14 20
L L W L D
13 20 6 2 12 21:40 -19 20
W L L L L
14 20 5 3 12 26:39 -13 18
D W L W L
15 20 4 4 12 15:39 -24 16
L L L W D
16 20 2 8 10 21:37 -16 14
L L L D D