BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 73.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 84.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
73.5%
-
BTTS No
67.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
84.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente FSJ Win 32.9%
Draw 26.5%
Marcílio Dias Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente FSJ0.42
Marcílio Dias0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ
WWDLW
3 GF / 4 GA
Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias
WLDWL
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
0.33
Average Goals Scored
1
0.44
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
0
BTTS Yes
3
0
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ 9 matches
Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias 9 matches
Independiente FSJ Statistic Marcílio Dias
3 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 2
3 Goals For 9
4 Goals Against 5
0.33 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.44 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
0 BTTS Yes 3
1 Over 1.5 3
0 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 1
6 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Marcílio Dias's more proactive style and Independiente FSJ's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Marcílio Dias. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Marcílio Dias having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independiente FSJ Analysis

Placed 3 with 12 points from 9 outings, Independiente FSJ continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 3:4 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marcílio Dias Analysis

Marcílio Dias come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 15 points after 9 matches. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 9:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Davi Torres (2 goals), Manoel (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Independiente FSJ won 0 times, Marcílio Dias won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from Independiente FSJ's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.5%)
H2H summary: Independiente FSJ wins 0, draws 2, Marcílio Dias wins 0
Last matches: Independiente FSJ
28.06.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Cianorte
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Cianorte
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Sao Jose
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
19.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Azuriz
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Blumenau
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Blumenau
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Azuriz
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Sao Jose
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Marcílio Dias
0
0
D
Last matches: Marcílio Dias
11.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
0
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
1
1
D
28.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
2
D
01.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
4
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Independiente FSJ
0
0
D
09.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
27.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Guarany de Bagé
1
1
D
14.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Barra
1
0
W
06.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Joinville
1
1
D
29.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
1
1
D
H2H: Independiente FSJ vs Marcílio Dias
07.06.26
H2H
Independiente FSJ
Marcílio Dias
0
0
D
05.04.26
H2H
Marcílio Dias
Independiente FSJ
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente FSJ
20.06.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Cianorte
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
19.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Azuriz
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Blumenau
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Independiente FSJ
Sao Jose
1
0
W
H2H at home: Independiente FSJ
07.06.26
H2H
Independiente FSJ
Marcílio Dias
0
0
D
Last matches: Marcílio Dias
11.07.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Portuguesa
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Cascavel
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Blumenau
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
0
0
D
09.08.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Sao Jose
1
1
D
06.07.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Joinville
1
1
D
29.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Azuriz
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
São Luiz
0
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Brasil DE Pelotas
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Barra
1
2
L
27.04.25
Ser
Marcílio Dias
Guarany de Bagé
3
3
D
H2H away: Marcílio Dias
07.06.26
H2H
Independiente FSJ
Marcílio Dias
0
0
D