ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero, Ecuador
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Universidad Catolica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Richard Schunke ↔ Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
51'
Ronald Briones · Assist: Juan Riquelme Angulo
Independiente del Valle
56'
Juan Riquelme Angulo · Assist: Djorkaeff Reasco
Independiente del Valle
61'
Mauricio Alonso · Assist: Mauro Díaz
Universidad Catolica
62'
Azarias Londoño · Assist: Mauro Díaz
Universidad Catolica
🔄
62'
Emiliano Clavijo ↔ Luis Moreno
Universidad Catolica
🟨
66'
Facundo Martinez
Universidad Catolica
🔄
67'
Matías Perello ↔ Arón Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
Djorkaeff Reasco ↔ Carlos González
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
Youri Ochoa ↔ Junior Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
Ronald Briones ↔ Hugo Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
78'
Mauricio Alonso ↔ Eric Valencia
Universidad Catolica
🔄
83'
Eddy Mejía ↔ Jimmy Evans
Universidad Catolica
🟨
90'
Jhegson Méndez
Independiente del Valle

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.4%
1.64
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.70
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.5%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 76.4%
Draw 3.6%
Universidad Catolica Win 20.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.79
Universidad Catolica1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
80 GF / 35 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
50 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
2.29
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
18
BTTS Yes
15
22
Over 2.5
14
6.21
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 35 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 29 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Universidad Catolica
28 Wins 13
2 Draws 7
5 Losses 9
80 Goals For 50
35 Goals Against 30
2.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
18 BTTS Yes 15
29 Over 1.5 21
22 Over 2.5 14
16 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 5
6.21 Shots On Goal 4.93
17.55 Total Shots 14.39
6.06 Corners 4.68
53.5% Ball Possession 59%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Universidad Catolica. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 64 points compared to Universidad Catolica in 4 on 40, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Universidad Catolica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 64 points after 25 outings. With 21 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 61:24, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Matías Perello (6 goals), Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (5 assists), Juan Viacava (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 10 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 40 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 40:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on José Fajardo (7 goals), Emiliano Clavijo (5 goals), Byron Palacios (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (8 assists), José Fajardo (2 assists), Eddy Mejía (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 7 times, Universidad Catolica won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:20 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 7, draws 3, Universidad Catolica wins 5

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs