ECUADOR LIGA PRO
22.07.2026 21:30
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: Oswaldo Contreras, Ecuador
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Tecnico Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Stiwar Mena
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
27'
Santiago Razzeto
Tecnico Universitario
41'
J. Sornoza · Assist: A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
59'
Mateo Castano
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
60'
J. Majao ↔ A. Castillo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
60'
B. Delgado ↔ C. Garcia
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
63'
Johan Bocanegra
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
66'
E. Pata ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
66'
R. Briones ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
66'
D. Reasco ↔ J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
72'
D. A. Romero Padilla · Assist: H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
74'
Y. Arce ↔ J. Caicedo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
74'
S. Mena ↔ Cordova
Tecnico Universitario
77'
M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
VAR
79'
Matías Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
80'
A. Rodriguez ↔ E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🔄
82'
J. Sornoza ↔ D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
86'
M. Castano ↔ M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
Tecnico Universitario

Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 80%
Draw 4.4%
Tecnico Universitario Win 15.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.78
Tecnico Universitario0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
61 GF / 28 GA
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WLDWL
19 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.26
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
14
BTTS Yes
8
17
Over 2.5
7
6.04
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 27 matches
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 21 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Tecnico Universitario
20 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
5 Losses 12
61 Goals For 19
28 Goals Against 22
2.26 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
14 BTTS Yes 8
23 Over 1.5 12
17 Over 2.5 7
12 Over 3.5 1
10 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 9
6.04 Shots On Goal 4
18 Total Shots 12
6.27 Corners 4.7
54.2% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Tecnico Universitario's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tecnico Universitario. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 43 points compared to Tecnico Universitario in 8 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Tecnico Universitario in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tecnico Universitario having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 43 points from 18 games, Independiente del Valle bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 40:19, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Emerson Pata (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), C. González (5 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

Tecnico Universitario are currently 8 in the standings with 23 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 19:19 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 10 times, Tecnico Universitario won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:10 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 10, draws 4, Tecnico Universitario wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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