Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
94.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
35.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
30.4%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Independiente del Valle
20 matches
Libertad
14 matches
| Independiente del Valle | Statistic | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wins | 3 |
| 2 | Draws | 5 |
| 4 | Losses | 6 |
| 37 | Goals For | 12 |
| 21 | Goals Against | 18 |
| 1.85 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.86 |
| 1.05 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 17 | Over 1.5 | 9 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 6 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.74 | Shots On Goal | 3.43 |
| 18.42 | Total Shots | 10.43 |
| 6.63 | Corners | 3.86 |
| 59.1% | Ball Possession | 48.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Libertad. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 34 points compared to Libertad in 15 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Libertad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 34 points after 14 matches. The return of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 26:13, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Emerson Pata (5 goals), D. Reasco (4 goals), M. Perello (3 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Viacava (3 assists), M. Perello (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Libertad sit 15 with 14 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 12:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Chere (3 goals), G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 3 times, Libertad won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.
Independiente del Valle
8
4
9
4
11
1
Lineups
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
UCV
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
UCV
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
Leones del Norte
Libertad
Manta FC
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
Libertad
Emelec
Libertad
Aucas
Libertad
Macara
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
Orense SC
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
Delfin SC
Libertad
Barcelona SC
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Leones del Norte
Libertad
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
UCV
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
Independiente del Valle
Inter Miami
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
Manta FC
Libertad
Emelec
Libertad
Macara
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
Orense SC
Libertad
Delfin SC
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
Leones del Norte
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 36:18 | 18 | 40 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20:13 | 7 | 29 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20:16 | 4 | 29 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19:14 | 5 | 27 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 27 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28:17 | 11 | 26 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 16:18 | -2 | 23 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 22 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 22:23 | -1 | 21 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 |
W
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14:17 | -3 | 20 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 19 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9:16 | -7 | 17 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 15 |
Libertad
Away
|
17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17:25 | -8 | 17 |
L
L
W
L
D
|
| 16 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7:23 | -16 | 12 |
L
W
L
D
L
|