ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: B. L. Salazar
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
M. Lucas
Libertad
🔄
46'
J. Viacava ↔ M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
47'
I. Zambrano · Assist: E. Patta
Libertad
🟨
50'
H. Batalla
Libertad
52'
M. Carabajal · Assist: J. Mendez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
53'
M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🟨
63'
J. Mendez
Independiente del Valle
66'
Y. Ochoa
Independiente del Valle
🔄
68'
Y. Ochoa ↔ J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
68'
D. Guagua ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
75'
E. Caicedo ↔ D. Coronel
Libertad
🔄
75'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ V. Branda
Libertad
77'
V. Branda · Assist: J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
Libertad
🔄
81'
D. Reasco ↔ C. Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
81'
J. Mendez ↔ J. Alcivar
Independiente del Valle
🔄
88'
I. Zambrano ↔ B. Corozo
Libertad
🟨
90+1'
V. Branda
Libertad
🟨
90+3'
D. Coronel
Libertad
🟨
90+5'
J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90+6'
H. Batalla ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
90'
V. Branda · Assist: H. Batalla
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 94.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
94.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 94.8%
Draw 0%
Libertad Win 5.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.63
Libertad0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
37 GF / 21 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
12 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
6
5.74
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 20 matches
Libertad Libertad 14 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Libertad
14 Wins 3
2 Draws 5
4 Losses 6
37 Goals For 12
21 Goals Against 18
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 7
17 Over 1.5 9
11 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 6
5.74 Shots On Goal 3.43
18.42 Total Shots 10.43
6.63 Corners 3.86
59.1% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Libertad. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 34 points compared to Libertad in 15 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Libertad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 34 points after 14 matches. The return of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 26:13, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Emerson Pata (5 goals), D. Reasco (4 goals), M. Perello (3 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Viacava (3 assists), M. Perello (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad sit 15 with 14 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 12:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Chere (3 goals), G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 3 times, Libertad won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Libertad 3-4-3
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 3, draws 4, Libertad wins 2
Stats
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Libertad Libertad
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
11
Blocked Shots
1
12 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
68% Ball Possession 32%
28 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Goal 4
9 Shots off Goal 4
11 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 6
13 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
562 Total passes 269
500 Passes accurate 212
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
Formation
Libertad
A. Quintana
A. Quintana
D. Guagua
D. Guagua
J. Espinoza
J. Espinoza
J. Viacava
J. Viacava
A. Velasco
A. Velasco
G. Cortez
G. Cortez
R. Briones
R. Briones
J. Mendez
🎯
J. Mendez
M. Perello
M. Perello
D. Reasco
D. Reasco
Y. Ochoa
Y. Ochoa
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
E. Patta
🎯
E. Patta
C. Gruezo
C. Gruezo
M. Lucas
M. Lucas
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
🎯
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
H. Batalla
🎯
H. Batalla
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
I. Zambrano
I. Zambrano
G. J. Cortez Casierra
G. J. Cortez Casierra
E. Caicedo
E. Caicedo
Independiente del Valle 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
A. Quintana
G
55
D. Guagua
↓ 68'
4
J. Espinoza
D
23
J. Viacava
↓ 46'
D
33
A. Velasco
D
15
G. Cortez
D
16
R. Briones
M
32
J. Mendez
🎯 52' ↓ 81' 🟨 63'
M
11
M. Perello
M
99
D. Reasco
↓ 81'
F
8
Y. Ochoa
⚽ 66' ↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
12
E. Bores
G
10
J. Sornoza
↑ 68' 🟨 90+5'
M
17
A. Rodriguez
↑ 68'
F
13
D. A. Romero Padilla
D
19
L. Loor
D
20
A. Gomez
M
9
C. Gonzalez
↑ 81'
F
14
M. Carabajal
⚽ 52' ↑ 46' 🟨 53'
D
6
J. Alcivar
↑ 81'
M
31
E. Pata
F
53
J. Lerma
50
J. Angulo
F
Libertad 5-3-2
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
17
E. Patta
🎯 47'
D
5
C. Gruezo
D
25
M. Lucas
🟨 14'
D
36
A. Garcia
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
🎯 77'
D
11
H. Batalla
🎯 90' ↓ 90+6' 🟨 50'
M
63
C. Valencia
M
7
I. Zambrano
⚽ 47' ↓ 88'
M
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
↓ 75'
F
9
E. Caicedo
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
52
A. Bao
29
R. Zambrano
D
8
S. Castro
↑ 90+6'
M
33
A. Chere
F
30
J. Bravo
M
23
J. Guisamano
M
19
B. Corozo
↑ 88'
M
49
D. Coronel
↑ 75' 🟨 90+3'
F
70
V. Branda
⚽ 77' ⚽ 90' ↑ 75' 🟨 90+1'
F
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2
2
D
07.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H: Independiente del Valle vs Libertad
23.05.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
06.12.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
04.11.25
H2H
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
1
3
W
14.06.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
15.02.25
H2H
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
2
0
L
21.09.24
H2H
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
3
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
0
W
15.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
2
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2
2
D
07.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Independiente del Valle
Inter Miami
1
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
2
0
W
H2H at home: Independiente del Valle
23.05.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
06.12.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
14.06.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
3
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
0
W
Last matches: Libertad
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad
23.05.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
W
06.12.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
14.06.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
3
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs