ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Deportivo Cuenca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Arón Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
D. Gonzalez ↔ J. Ordonez
Deportivo Cuenca
53'
J. Angulo · Assist: A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
64'
L. Mancinelli ↔ Y. H. Erique Villigua
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
67'
J. Angulo ↔ D. Reasco
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
E. Pata ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🟨
77'
Mateo Maccari
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
78'
H. Quintana ↔ R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
78'
J. Sornoza ↔ D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
78'
M. Diaz ↔ J. Mejia
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
83'
A. Lopez ↔ G. Rivero
Deportivo Cuenca
🟥
86'
Patricio Boolsen
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
87'
A. Rodriguez ↔ E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 73%
Draw 3.6%
Deportivo Cuenca Win 23.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.87
Deportivo Cuenca1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
67 GF / 30 GA
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WLDWL
25 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
2.31
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
15
BTTS Yes
12
19
Over 2.5
9
6.07
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 29 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 24 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Deportivo Cuenca
22 Wins 11
2 Draws 4
5 Losses 9
67 Goals For 25
30 Goals Against 29
2.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
15 BTTS Yes 12
25 Over 1.5 16
19 Over 2.5 9
13 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
6.07 Shots On Goal 3.73
17.5 Total Shots 12.55
6.14 Corners 4.55
54.3% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Deportivo Cuenca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Cuenca. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 52 points compared to Deportivo Cuenca in 8 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 52 points after 21 matches. With 17 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 52:20, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), Matías Perello (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), Junior Sornoza (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca sit 8 with 28 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 19:26 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 12 times, Deportivo Cuenca won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:8 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Deportivo Cuenca 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 12, draws 2, Deportivo Cuenca wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs