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10.10.2026 16:30
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: G. Araujo
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Aucas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
33'
Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo · Assist: Ayrton Preciado
Aucas
🟨
34'
Junior Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
⚽
39'
Junior Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
⚽
56'
Hugo Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
59'
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez ↔ Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
Independiente del Valle
🔄
59'
Carlos González ↔ Djorkaeff Reascos
Independiente del Valle
🟨
65'
Hugo Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
67'
Junior Sornoza ↔ Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
68'
Luis Arroyo ↔ Maverick Vera
Aucas
🔄
68'
Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado ↔ B. Oyola
Aucas
⚽
74'
Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
Independiente del Valle
🔄
79'
Andres Mena ↔ Cristhoper Zambrano
Aucas
🔄
79'
Ayrton Preciado ↔ Alexander Bolaños
Aucas
🔄
86'
Matias Mijail Perello ↔ Edwin Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🔄
86'
Hugo Quintana ↔ Jhegson Mendez Carabali
Independiente del Valle
🟨
90+4'
Alex Rodrigo Zova Cacierra
Aucas
🟨
90+5'
Santiago Morales
Aucas

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 56.4%
Draw 12.5%
Aucas Win 31.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.7
Aucas1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
D W L W L
8 GF / 8 GA
Aucas Aucas
L D D D W
4 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
2.2
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
23
BTTS Yes
12
26
Over 2.5
11
6.35
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 41 matches
Aucas Aucas 33 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Aucas
30 Wins 15
4 Draws 8
7 Losses 10
90 Goals For 35
45 Goals Against 31
2.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
23 BTTS Yes 12
35 Over 1.5 17
26 Over 2.5 11
19 Over 3.5 5
14 Clean Sheets 15
5 Failed To Score 9
6.35 Shots On Goal 4.16
18.35 Total Shots 12.03
6.13 Corners 4.77
55.9% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aucas. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 74 points compared to Aucas in 4 on 50, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Aucas in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aucas having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 74 points after 30 matches. The return of 24 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 73:33, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Reasco (7 goals), M. Perelló (7 goals), Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rodríguez (5 assists), D. Reasco (4 assists), J. Viacava (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 50 points after 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Ayrton Preciado (4 goals), Ederson Quiñónez (4 goals), with creative support from Ayrton Preciado (3 assists), Andres Mena (3 assists), Piero Guzmán (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 4 times, Aucas won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:4 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Aucas 5-4-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 4, draws 1, Aucas wins 0

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Away
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Liga Pro (Relegation Group)