BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Independência
Match Timeline
Guaporé
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
Igor Goularte
Guaporé
35'
Watthimen
Guaporé
38'
Ancelmo
Independência
90'
Caique Gomes
Independência

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.9%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.9%
1.28
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.81
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Independência Win 48.3%
Draw 8.1%
Guaporé Win 43.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independência1.31
Guaporé1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independência Independência
WWDLW
15 GF / 8 GA
Guaporé Guaporé
WLDWL
17 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.89
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.78
5
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independência Independência 9 matches
Guaporé Guaporé 9 matches
Independência Statistic Guaporé
4 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
3 Losses 0
15 Goals For 17
8 Goals Against 7
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.78
5 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Guaporé. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Guaporé carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 21 points while Independência sit 4 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Guaporé having the stronger overall control.

Independência Analysis

Independência come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 14 points after 9 matches. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 15:8, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pitel (6 goals), Caique Gomes (3 goals), Biel (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Guaporé Analysis

Guaporé approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 21 points after 9 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 17:7 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Gabriel (4 goals), L. Pessoa (3 goals), Watthimen (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Independência won 0 times, Guaporé won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Independência's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
H2H summary: Independência wins 0, draws 2, Guaporé wins 1
Last matches: Independência
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
0
1
L
28.05.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
Last matches: Guaporé
30.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
3
2
W
23.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
4
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
3
3
D
25.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Independência
1
0
W
H2H: Independência vs Guaporé
14.06.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
04.04.26
H2H
Guaporé
Independência
1
0
L
26.03.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
0
0
D
Last matches: Independência
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
28.05.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
4
1
W
27.04.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
H2H at home: Independência
14.06.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
26.03.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
0
0
D
Last matches: Guaporé
23.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
4
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
3
3
D
12.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
1
1
D
H2H away: Guaporé
14.06.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
26.03.26
H2H
Independência
Guaporé
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.47
Draw 2.98
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.29
Over 2.0 1.37
Over 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 1.81
Over 2.75 2.05
Over 3.0 2.43
Over 3.25 2.74
Under 1.75 3.22
Under 2.0 2.81
Under 2.25 2.22
Under 2.5 1.89
Under 2.75 1.70
Under 3.0 1.49
Under 3.25 1.39
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 3.10
Home 2.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.20
Home 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.50
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 3.5 3.00
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 5.5 9.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.95
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.47
Draw 3.06
Home 2.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.12
Draw 1.99
Home 3.34
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.72
Draw 2.43
Home 2.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 1.75 1.28
Over 2.0 1.36
Over 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 1.82
Over 2.75 1.99
Over 3.0 2.35
Over 3.25 2.62
Over 3.5 2.92
Over 3.75 3.50
Over 4.0 4.75
Over 4.5 5.80
Over 5.5 12.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 9.20
Under 1.0 7.80
Under 1.5 3.42
Under 1.75 3.08
Under 2.0 2.69
Under 2.25 2.16
Under 2.5 1.87
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.38
Under 3.5 1.31
Under 3.75 1.22
Under 4.0 1.12
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.48
Draw 3.10
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.14
Home 3.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 2.40
Home 2.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.87
Over 3.5 3.20
Under 1.5 3.35
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 3.5 1.27

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)