BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Independência
Match Timeline
Galvez
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
Geovani Silva
Galvez
19'
Biel
Independência
56'
Pitel
Independência
65'
Caua
Independência

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independência Win 74.7%
Draw 9.4%
Galvez Win 15.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independência1.43
Galvez1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independência Independência
WWDLW
8 GF / 7 GA
Galvez Galvez
WLDWL
11 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
4
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independência Independência 7 matches
Galvez Galvez 7 matches
Independência Statistic Galvez
2 Wins 3
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 3
8 Goals For 11
7 Goals Against 13
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Independência's more proactive style and Galvez's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Galvez. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Galvez having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independência Analysis

Independência arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 8 points after 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Caique Gomes (3 goals), Biel (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Galvez Analysis

Galvez approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 10 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 11:13 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on L. Capixaba (6 goals), Daniego (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Independência won 3 times, Galvez won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:13 from Independência's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
H2H summary: Independência wins 3, draws 2, Galvez wins 4
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Galvez
14.06.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
0
9
L
30.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
2
6
L
16.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
4
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Independência
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
0
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
1
2
L
H2H: Independência vs Galvez
24.05.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
1
L
06.03.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
29.03.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
3
W
25.02.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
17.04.24
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
1
D
20.04.23
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
0
W
16.03.22
H2H
Independência
Galvez
0
4
L
05.03.20
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
20.01.19
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
0
L
Last matches: Independência
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
28.05.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
4
1
W
27.04.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
H2H at home: Independência
24.05.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
06.03.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
20.04.23
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
0
W
16.03.22
H2H
Independência
Galvez
0
4
L
Last matches: Galvez
14.06.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
0
9
L
09.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
0
4
L
H2H away: Galvez
24.05.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
3
1
L
06.03.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
2
W
20.04.23
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
0
L
16.03.22
H2H
Independência
Galvez
0
4
W

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)