10.05.2026 00:30
Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini
Referee: L. Lobo Medina
Independ. Rivadavia
Match Timeline
Union Santa Fe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
M. Pitton
Union Santa Fe
34'
B. Cuello · Assist: J. Palacios
Union Santa Fe
49'
C. Tarragona · Assist: M. Del Blanco
Union Santa Fe
🔄
53'
M. Fernandez ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
53'
E. Bonifacio ↔ J. M. Elordi
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
56'
T. Bottari
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
63'
M. Estigarribia
Union Santa Fe
🔄
64'
T. Bottari ↔ R. Atencio
Independ. Rivadavia
70'
F. Sartori
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
75'
B. Cuello ↔ A. Solari
Union Santa Fe
🔄
81'
J. Palacios ↔ C. Corvalan
Union Santa Fe
🔄
81'
R. Profini ↔ L. Menossi
Union Santa Fe
🔄
86'
L. Gomez ↔ L. Costa
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
88'
M. Estigarribia ↔ A. Colazo
Union Santa Fe
VAR
90+6'
M. Del Blanco
Union Santa Fe

Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independ. Rivadavia Win 72.7%
Draw 5.2%
Union Santa Fe Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independ. Rivadavia1.59
Union Santa Fe1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WWDLW
39 GF / 18 GA
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WLDWL
26 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.53
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
14
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
8
4.9
Shots on Goal
5.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 21 matches
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 17 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Statistic Union Santa Fe
14 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
2 Losses 5
39 Goals For 26
18 Goals Against 20
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
14 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
4.9 Shots On Goal 5.44
13.6 Total Shots 17.38
4.4 Corners 5.13
45.8% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Union Santa Fe. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independ. Rivadavia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Union Santa Fe in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union Santa Fe having the stronger overall control.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia come into this tie placed 12 in their league with 123 points from 89 matches. The return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats, together with a 0:0 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by F. Sartori (6 goals), A. Osella (4 goals), L. Bucca (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (5 assists), R. Atencio (4 assists), M. Fernandez (2 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Union Santa Fe arrive from a league campaign that has them 13 with 120 points after 89 matches. Their record of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with goals at 0:0 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Cristian Tarragona (7 goals), M. Estigarribia (4 goals), J. Palacios (3 goals), with creative support from J. Palacios (5 assists), R. Profini (5 assists), Lautaro Vargas (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Independ. Rivadavia won 2 times, Union Santa Fe won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Independ. Rivadavia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Independ. Rivadavia 4-2-3-1 / Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
H2H summary: Independ. Rivadavia wins 2, draws 2, Union Santa Fe wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W W W D W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D D W D L
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D L D W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D D L W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D W W L L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W D D D L
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L L L D L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
D W L W W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D L L L W
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L D D L
Knockout Phase