FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Tammelan Stadion
Referee: O. Reitala
Ilves
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Foster Gyamfi
Mariehamn
25'
T. Hytonen · Assist: J. Kanga
Ilves
45'
J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
46'
J. Kilo ↔ O. Multala
Ilves
🔄
46'
K. Wallius ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🟨
57'
Noah Nurmi
Mariehamn
🔄
57'
T. Hytonen ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🟨
60'
Oskari Multala
Ilves
🔄
61'
A. Bergvik ↔ M. Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
61'
T. Jakobsen ↔ A. Larsson
Mariehamn
🔄
70'
J. Kanga ↔ E. Tamminen
Ilves
🔄
70'
A. Popovitch ↔ Y. Sacko
Ilves
🔄
77'
A. Stroud ↔ A. Huttunen
Mariehamn
🔄
77'
R. Monteiro ↔ W. Nunez
Mariehamn
🟨
85'
Emmanuel Patut
Mariehamn
🔄
90+3'
E. Patut ↔ V. Widlund
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 88%
Draw 6%
Mariehamn Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.84
Mariehamn0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
46 GF / 36 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
14 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
0.64
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
2.05
13
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
10
2.24
Shots on Goal
1.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 27 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 22 matches
Ilves Statistic Mariehamn
11 Wins 1
5 Draws 7
11 Losses 14
46 Goals For 14
36 Goals Against 45
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 0.64
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 2.05
13 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 10
12 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 0
6 Failed To Score 12
2.24 Shots On Goal 1.56
4.95 Total Shots 4.78
1.76 Corners 2.44
22.8% Ball Possession 27.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mariehamn. Ilves arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 22 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mariehamn in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ilves Analysis

So far, Ilves have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 22 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 5 points from 17 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 9:36 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 8 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:13 from Ilves's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 3-4-2-1 / Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ilves wins 8, draws 3, Mariehamn wins 3

Lineups

Ilves
Formation
Mariehamn
F. Krkalic
F. Krkalic
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
S. Vaisanen
S. Vaisanen
M. Rale
M. Rale
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson
Y. Raap
Y. Raap
A. Popovitch
A. Popovitch
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
J. Kanga
🎯
J. Kanga
J. Kilo
J. Kilo
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
K. Lund
K. Lund
L. Richtner
L. Richtner
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
F. Gyamfi
F. Gyamfi
A. Soiniemi
A. Soiniemi
J. Svedberg
J. Svedberg
E. Patut
E. Patut
R. Monteiro
R. Monteiro
A. Bergvik
A. Bergvik
A. Stroud
A. Stroud
T. Jakobsen
T. Jakobsen
Ilves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
12
F. Krkalic
G
24
V. Kumpu
D
5
S. Vaisanen
D
3
M. Rale
D
4
O. Pettersson
6
Y. Raap
D
14
A. Popovitch
↓ 70'
M
13
K. Wallius
↓ 46'
M
30
J. Kanga
⚽ 45' 🎯 25' ↓ 70'
M
28
J. Kilo
↓ 46'
M
9
T. Hytonen
⚽ 25' ↓ 57'
F
Substitutes
1
O. Virtanen
G
10
R. Riski
F
16
T. Miettunen
D
22
O. Multala
↑ 46' 🟨 60'
M
19
G. Bamba
↑ 57'
D
45
E. Tamminen
↑ 70'
F
15
L. Ala-Myllymaki
M
17
S. Baranov
↑ 46'
M
33
Y. Sacko
↑ 70'
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
K. Lund
G
4
L. Richtner
D
2
N. Nurmi
🟨 57'
D
19
F. Gyamfi
🟨 24'
D
3
A. Soiniemi
D
11
J. Svedberg
M
20
E. Patut
↓ 90+3' 🟨 85'
M
22
R. Monteiro
↓ 77'
M
14
A. Bergvik
↓ 61'
M
18
A. Stroud
↓ 77'
M
15
T. Jakobsen
↓ 61'
Substitutes
32
M. Riikonen
G
8
J. Heyden
M
64
M. Hyvonen
↑ 61'
M
43
L. Andersson
F
16
A. Huttunen
↑ 77'
M
7
A. Larsson
↑ 61'
F
5
T. Koivisto
D
9
W. Nunez
↑ 77'
F
23
V. Widlund
↑ 90+3'
D
Last matches: Ilves
17.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
02.08.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
15.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
2
0
W
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
H2H: Ilves vs Mariehamn
09.08.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
14.03.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
W
27.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
3
2
L
11.08.24
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
28.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
1
W
27.09.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
W
15.07.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
05.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
3
L
21.08.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
5
W
15.05.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
29.08.21
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
0
L
Last matches: Ilves
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
H2H at home: Ilves
09.08.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
14.03.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
W
11.08.24
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
27.09.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
W
15.07.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
02.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
3
L
15.05.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
09.08.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L
14.03.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
L
11.08.24
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L
27.09.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
L
15.07.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
02.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
3
W
15.05.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
1
0
L
22.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8 20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9
Ilves Home
20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10 20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)