Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
54.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 8.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Ilves
Mariehamn
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Ilves
27 matches
Mariehamn
22 matches
| Ilves | Statistic | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 1 |
| 5 | Draws | 7 |
| 11 | Losses | 14 |
| 46 | Goals For | 14 |
| 36 | Goals Against | 45 |
| 1.7 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.64 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2.05 |
| 13 | BTTS Yes | 10 |
| 17 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 0 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 12 |
| 2.24 | Shots On Goal | 1.56 |
| 4.95 | Total Shots | 4.78 |
| 1.76 | Corners | 2.44 |
| 22.8% | Ball Possession | 27.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mariehamn. Ilves arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 22 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mariehamn in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
So far, Ilves have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 22 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 5 points from 17 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 9:36 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 8 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:13 from Ilves's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.
Lineups
Ilves
Gnistan
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
Ilves
AC Oulu
Ilves
Stjarnan
Ilves
Lahti
Ilves
Stjarnan
Ilves
Turku PS
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
Ilves
FF Jaro
Ilves
SJK
Ilves
KuPS
Ilves
FF Jaro
Ilves
Turku PS
Ilves
Lahti
Ilves
Gnistan
Ilves
Inter Turku
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
Ilves
Stjarnan
Ilves
Lahti
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
Ilves
SJK
Ilves
FF Jaro
Ilves
Turku PS
Ilves
Gnistan
Ilves
Inter Turku
Ilves
AC Oulu
Ilves
KuPS
Ilves
MP
Ilves
Haka
Ilves
Gnistan
Ilves
Ilves II
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 36:18 | 18 | 43 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28:16 | 12 | 38 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 3 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 32:23 | 9 | 34 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32:26 | 6 | 32 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28:21 | 7 | 30 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 24:25 | -1 | 30 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27:22 | 5 | 29 |
W
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 8 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23:18 | 5 | 26 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 |
Ilves
Home
|
20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 33:34 | -1 | 25 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
| 10 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 24:31 | -7 | 18 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18:41 | -23 | 15 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Away
|
20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11:41 | -30 | 8 |
W
L
L
D
L
|