FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Tammelan Stadion
Referee: J. Hyytia
Ilves
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
T. Hytonen · Assist: O. Pettersson
Ilves
🟨
37'
Ville Kumpu
Ilves
🟨
51'
Oskari Multala
Ilves
🟨
53'
Otto Kemppainen
AC Oulu
🔄
60'
S. Suvanne ↔ J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
62'
O. Kemppainen ↔ S. Sipola
AC Oulu
🔄
63'
J. Paananen ↔ J. Makelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
69'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
69'
O. Multala ↔ O. Tiitinen
Ilves
🔄
75'
E. Kallio ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
75'
L. Ghezali ↔ K. Jatta
AC Oulu
🔄
90+3'
M. Stjopin ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 40.2%
Draw 8.9%
AC Oulu Win 50.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.78
AC Oulu1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
20 GF / 13 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
16 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2.22
Average Goals Scored
2
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
2.2
Shots on Goal
2.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 9 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 8 matches
Ilves Statistic AC Oulu
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 1
4 Losses 2
20 Goals For 16
13 Goals Against 9
2.22 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
6 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 0
2.2 Shots On Goal 2.17
6.6 Total Shots 7.83
2.4 Corners 3
27% Ball Possession 31.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AC Oulu's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. AC Oulu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 12 points while Ilves sit 11 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Ilves have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AC Oulu.

Ilves Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 11, Ilves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 7:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Hytonen (2 goals), Jardell Kanga (1 goals), M. Stjopin (1 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Oulu Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 12 points from 6 games, AC Oulu bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 12:6, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Karjalainen (5 goals), J. Korkko (3 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Kallio (2 assists), R. Karjalainen (1 assists), L. Ghezali (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 11 times, AC Oulu won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:9 from Ilves's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 4-2-3-1 / AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ilves wins 11, draws 3, AC Oulu wins 1

Lineups

Ilves
Formation
AC Oulu
F. Krkalic
F. Krkalic
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
T. Miettunen
T. Miettunen
M. Rale
M. Rale
O. Pettersson
🎯
O. Pettersson
Y. Raap
Y. Raap
O. Multala
O. Multala
S. Suvanne
S. Suvanne
M. Stjopin
M. Stjopin
J. Kilo
J. Kilo
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
M. Santos
M. Santos
O. Kemppainen
O. Kemppainen
M. Pitkanen
M. Pitkanen
J. Pirinen
J. Pirinen
T. Kaukua
T. Kaukua
L. Ghezali
L. Ghezali
I. Mendolin
I. Mendolin
J. Paananen
J. Paananen
E. Kallio
E. Kallio
R. Karjalainen
R. Karjalainen
J. Korkko
J. Korkko
Ilves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
12
F. Krkalic
G
24
V. Kumpu
🟨 37'
D
16
T. Miettunen
D
3
M. Rale
D
4
O. Pettersson
🎯 11' ↓ 69'
6
Y. Raap
D
22
O. Multala
↓ 69' 🟨 51'
M
25
S. Suvanne
↓ 60'
D
8
M. Stjopin
↓ 90+3'
M
28
J. Kilo
M
9
T. Hytonen
⚽ 11'
F
Substitutes
1
O. Virtanen
G
31
R. Leislahti
G
19
G. Bamba
↑ 69'
D
30
J. Kanga
↑ 60'
M
23
A. Raymond
D
33
O. Paavola
17
S. Baranov
↑ 90+3'
M
20
O. Tiitinen
↑ 69'
M
AC Oulu 4-4-2
Starting XI
13
M. Santos
G
16
O. Kemppainen
↓ 62' 🟨 53'
D
5
M. Pitkanen
D
66
J. Pirinen
D
22
T. Kaukua
M
11
L. Ghezali
↓ 75'
M
21
I. Mendolin
M
6
J. Paananen
↓ 63'
M
27
E. Kallio
↓ 75'
M
7
R. Karjalainen
M
26
J. Korkko
F
Substitutes
99
N. Schulz
G
14
N. Jokelainen
↑ 75'
M
29
S. Silander
D
30
J. Makelainen
↑ 63'
M
8
M. Ojala
M
2
S. Sipola
↑ 62'
D
3
A. Lietsa
D
18
A. Cassama
D
20
K. Jatta
↑ 75'
F
Last matches: Ilves
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H: Ilves vs AC Oulu
08.05.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
21.02.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
2
2
D
16.08.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
4
W
24.05.25
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
0
D
01.02.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
2
W
04.08.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
W
04.05.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
W
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
08.02.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
W
06.10.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
W
23.08.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
19.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
3
W
05.05.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
2
L
28.01.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
0
D
16.10.22
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
2
W
Last matches: Ilves
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
H2H at home: Ilves
08.05.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
21.02.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
2
2
D
24.05.25
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
0
D
04.05.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
W
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
06.10.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
W
23.08.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
05.05.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
2
L
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
H2H away: AC Oulu
08.05.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
21.02.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
2
2
D
24.05.25
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
0
D
04.05.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
L
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
06.10.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
L
23.08.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
05.05.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9
Ilves Home
15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)