BRAZIL SERIE D
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Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Iguatu Win 75.9%
Draw 5.7%
Maguary PE Win 18.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Iguatu1.2
Maguary PE0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Iguatu Iguatu
WWDLW
20 GF / 11 GA
Maguary PE Maguary PE
WLDWL
12 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
8
BTTS Yes
2
5
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Iguatu Iguatu 13 matches
Maguary PE Maguary PE 13 matches
Iguatu Statistic Maguary PE
7 Wins 4
6 Draws 4
0 Losses 5
20 Goals For 12
11 Goals Against 9
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
8 BTTS Yes 2
9 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 2
4 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Iguatu hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-2, so Maguary PE now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. Iguatu arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 20 points compared to Maguary PE in 3 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maguary PE having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Maguary PE.

Iguatu Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Iguatu arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 20 points after 10 matches. With 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:7, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Maguary PE Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Maguary PE arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 13 points after 10 matches. With 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 8:5, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Last matches: Iguatu
04.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maguary PE
3
2
W
27.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
1
2
L
13.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
0
1
L
08.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
1
D
Last matches: Maguary PE
04.07.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Iguatu
2
3
L
27.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Piauí
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Piauí
2
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
ABC
0
1
L
01.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Sousa
2
0
W
25.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Laguna
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Central SC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
America-RN
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
America-RN
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Central SC
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Laguna
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Sousa
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maguary PE
ABC
3
0
W
Last matches: Iguatu
27.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
2
D
10.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
2
1
W
13.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
0
1
L
30.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
2
3
L
10.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
Last matches: Maguary PE
27.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Piauí
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Maguary PE
ABC
0
1
L
25.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Laguna
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Central SC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Maguary PE
America-RN
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Maguary PE
Sousa
0
1
L

Standings

Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)