ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
08.05.2026 19:00
MKM Stadium
Referee: G. Ward
Hull City
Match Timeline
Millwall
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
52'
Casper De Norre
Millwall
🔄
69'
L. Millar ↔ Y. Hirakawa
Hull City
🔄
70'
M. Belloumi ↔ K. Joseph
Hull City
🔄
74'
J. Gelhardt ↔ K. Dowell
Hull City
🔄
74'
C. De Norre ↔ B. Bannan
Millwall
🔄
74'
T. Ballo ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
82'
Z. Sturge ↔ A. Doughty
Millwall
🔄
86'
J. Coburn ↔ M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🔄
88'
R. Slater ↔ J. Lundstram
Hull City

Hull City vs Millwall Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Hull City Win 35.3%
Draw 14.7%
Millwall Win 50%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hull City1.34
Millwall1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hull City Hull City
WWDLW
70 GF / 70 GA
Millwall Millwall
WLDWL
65 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
30
BTTS Yes
24
31
Over 2.5
23
4.04
Shots on Goal
4.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hull City Hull City 48 matches
Millwall Millwall 47 matches
Hull City Statistic Millwall
21 Wins 24
11 Draws 11
16 Losses 12
70 Goals For 65
70 Goals Against 54
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
30 BTTS Yes 24
37 Over 1.5 38
31 Over 2.5 23
18 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 18
10 Failed To Score 8
4.04 Shots On Goal 4.28
11.33 Total Shots 12.94
4.67 Corners 5.66
45.4% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Millwall have the edge after taking the first leg 3-1, leaving Hull City needing to respond to a 2-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Hull City had more of the ball in the first leg (56% possession compared to 44%). Hull City were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 4. Hull City also attempted more passes (412 to 329) and completed 294. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Millwall.

Hull City Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Hull City arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 73 points after 46 matches. With 21 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses plus a goal ratio of 70:66, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Oliver McBurnie (17 goals), J. Gelhardt (14 goals), K. Joseph (8 goals), with creative support from R. Giles (8 assists), Oliver McBurnie (7 assists), K. Joseph (5 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with E. Matazo, T. Collyer, C. Drameh unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Millwall Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Millwall arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 83 points after 46 matches. Their record of 24 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats with goals at 64:49 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on F. Azeez (11 goals), Josh Coburn (9 goals), M. Ivanovic (9 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), T. Ballo (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Jensen, D. Kelly, M. Luongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hull City won 7 times, Millwall won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:12 from Hull City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Hull City 4-2-3-1 / Millwall 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Hull City 5, Millwall 5
H2H summary: Hull City wins 7, draws 5, Millwall wins 3

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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