🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
27.09.2026 00:30
Shell Energy Stadium

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Houston Dynamo Win 88%
Draw 6%
Sporting Kansas City Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Houston Dynamo1.83
Sporting Kansas City1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WWDLW
55 GF / 40 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
34 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
2.23
17
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
22
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 35 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 31 matches
Houston Dynamo Statistic Sporting Kansas City
20 Wins 8
7 Draws 3
8 Losses 20
55 Goals For 34
40 Goals Against 69
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 2.23
17 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 22
8 Over 3.5 12
13 Clean Sheets 2
7 Failed To Score 12
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.08
12.88 Total Shots 10.48
4.15 Corners 3.88
47.7% Ball Possession 44.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Houston Dynamo's more proactive style and Sporting Kansas City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sporting Kansas City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Houston Dynamo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 43 points compared to Sporting Kansas City in 15 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sporting Kansas City.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 43 points after 25 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 32:28 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Guilherme (8 goals), Mateusz Bogusz (5 goals), Lawrence Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (3 assists), Lawrence Ennali (3 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

With 18 points from 24 games and a place of 15, Sporting Kansas City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 16 defeats with a 26:59 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Joveljić (6 goals), Taylor Calheira (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Calvin Harris (3 assists), Manu García (3 assists), Emir Karić (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo won 5 times, Sporting Kansas City won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Houston Dynamo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Houston Dynamo 4-4-2 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
H2H summary: Houston Dynamo wins 5, draws 4, Sporting Kansas City wins 6

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)