🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.04.2026 00:30
Shell Energy Stadium
Referee: R. Vazquez
Houston Dynamo
Match Timeline
San Diego
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Felipe Andrade
Houston Dynamo
⚽
35'
I. Aliyu · Assist: O. Lingr
Houston Dynamo
🟨
38'
Anibal Godoy
San Diego
🔄
66'
Guilherme ↔ E. Ponce
Houston Dynamo
🔄
66'
D. Samassekou ↔ Artur
Houston Dynamo
🔄
66'
L. Morgan ↔ A. Pellegrino
San Diego
🔄
66'
A. Godoy ↔ M. Ingvartsen
San Diego
🔄
75'
M. Bogusz ↔ L. Ennali
Houston Dynamo
🔄
77'
A. Bouzat ↔ H. Herrera
Houston Dynamo
🔄
77'
O. Soe ↔ D. Vazquez
San Diego
🔄
77'
A. Mighten ↔ I. Pilcher
San Diego
🟥
79'
Amahl Pellegrino
San Diego
🟨
90+3'
Franco Negri
Houston Dynamo
🟥
90+7'
Ondrej Lingr
Houston Dynamo
🟨
90+7'
Ian Pilcher
San Diego
🔄
90+1'
Felipe Andrade ↔ E. Sviatchenko
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90+1'
O. Verhoeven ↔ A. Alvarado Jr
San Diego

Houston Dynamo vs San Diego Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 89.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
89.5%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Houston Dynamo Win 61.3%
Draw 7.3%
San Diego Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Houston Dynamo1.83
San Diego1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WWDLW
27 GF / 25 GA
San Diego San Diego
WLDWL
25 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.69
10
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
9
4.71
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 14 matches
San Diego San Diego 13 matches
Houston Dynamo Statistic San Diego
8 Wins 6
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 5
27 Goals For 25
25 Goals Against 22
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.69
10 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
4.71 Shots On Goal 4.5
14.57 Total Shots 10.25
5.86 Corners 4.83
42.7% Ball Possession 57.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and San Diego's more proactive style and Houston Dynamo's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. San Diego seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward San Diego. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Houston Dynamo expected to line up in 3-4-3 and San Diego in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Diego having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

With 9 points from 7 games and a place of 10, Houston Dynamo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:16, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Guilherme (5 goals), Felipe Andrade (2 goals), L. Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (4 assists), J. McGlynn (2 assists), M. Bogusz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Lucas Halter, J. McGlynn, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

San Diego Analysis

San Diego sit 9 with 11 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 14:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Ingvartsen (5 goals), A. Dreyer (4 goals), O. Valakari (3 goals), with creative support from A. Dreyer (3 assists), M. Ingvartsen (2 assists), O. Valakari (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Reyes, A. Alvarado Jr, K. Sargeant unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo won 2 times, San Diego won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:7 from Houston Dynamo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Houston Dynamo 3-4-3 / San Diego 4-3-3
Missing players: Houston Dynamo 2, San Diego 9
H2H summary: Houston Dynamo wins 2, draws 0, San Diego wins 1

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 5 6 59:26 33 50
D W L W L
2 27 13 8 6 50:42 8 47
W D W W W
3 27 13 6 8 49:39 10 45
W D W W D
4 27 13 5 9 34:32 2 44
L D L W D
5 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
6 28 11 8 9 43:30 13 41
L D L W D
7 27 11 3 13 38:38 0 36
L D W D L
8 28 9 9 10 37:44 -7 36
W W D L W
9 26 9 8 9 33:34 -1 35
W W D D D
10 27 9 5 13 48:51 -3 32
L L L D W
11 27 9 5 13 40:44 -4 32
W L L L L
12 27 8 8 11 47:47 0 32
D D L L L
13 27 7 10 10 35:47 -12 31
D D W D D
14 27 7 8 12 40:49 -9 29
L L L L L
15 26 6 3 17 31:63 -32 21
W L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)