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09.10.2026 18:45
Bartons North Wales Stadium
Referee: T. Owen
Holywell
Match Timeline
The New Saints
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
31'
B. Young
The New Saints
⚽
38'
D. Sullivan
Holywell
⚽
48'
R. Hughes
The New Saints
🔄
62'
D. Williams ↔ J. Williams
The New Saints
🔄
68'
C. Hughes ↔ F. Murtas
Holywell
⚽
69'
J. Lock
The New Saints
⚽
72'
J. Bodenham
The New Saints
🔄
74'
O. Davies ↔ D. McGiveron
Holywell
🔄
75'
D. Simeu ↔ E. Farrell
The New Saints
🔄
75'
J. Lock ↔ I. Jefferies
The New Saints
🔄
81'
D. Redmond ↔ B. Clark
The New Saints
🔄
81'
R. Hughes ↔ Z. Nolan
The New Saints
🔄
83'
J. Sconce ↔ J. Reed
Holywell
🔄
83'
R. Edwards ↔ C. Bedford
Holywell
⚽
89'
B. Clark
The New Saints
⚽
90'
J. Williams
The New Saints

Holywell vs The New Saints Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 87.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
87.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Holywell Win 8.3%
Draw 3.9%
The New Saints Win 87.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Holywell0.95
The New Saints2.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Holywell Holywell
WWDLW
16 GF / 41 GA
The New Saints The New Saints
WLDWL
43 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
2.39
2.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
12
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
1.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Holywell Holywell 14 matches
The New Saints The New Saints 18 matches
Holywell Statistic The New Saints
0 Wins 13
4 Draws 2
10 Losses 3
16 Goals For 43
41 Goals Against 12
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 2.39
2.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
12 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 1.25
0 Total Shots 2.75
0 Corners 1.25
0% Ball Possession 17.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by The New Saints's more proactive style and Holywell's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The New Saints carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Holywell sit 16 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors The New Saints. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The New Saints look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward The New Saints having the stronger overall control.

Holywell Analysis

Holywell sit 16 with 2 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 13:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

The New Saints Analysis

The New Saints approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 34 points after 12 outings. They have recorded 11 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 38:5 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 12 1 0 44:6 38 37
W W W W W
2 13 10 1 2 30:9 21 31
W W W W W
3 13 9 3 1 25:11 14 30
W L W W W
4 13 8 2 3 37:15 22 26
W L D W D
5 13 8 1 4 22:15 7 25
W L W W W
6 13 8 1 4 28:23 5 25
L W L L D
7 13 6 3 4 24:16 8 21
L W W D L
8 13 7 0 6 25:18 7 21
W W L W L
9 13 5 3 5 21:33 -12 18
L L W L W
10 13 5 1 7 22:23 -1 16
L L L L D
11 13 3 3 7 12:22 -10 12
L W D D L
12 13 3 1 9 8:19 -11 10
L L L L W
13 13 2 3 8 10:32 -22 9
W W L L D
14 13 2 2 9 12:25 -13 8
L W W L L
15 13 1 3 9 8:31 -23 6
W L L D L
16 13 0 2 11 14:44 -30 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)