Login Register
CROATIA › HNL
18.10.2026 13:00
Stadion Poljud

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.3%
- ▥
BTTS No
65.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Hajduk Split Win 69.3%
Draw 4.4%
NK Varazdin Win 26.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Hajduk Split1.72
NK Varazdin1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
WWDLW
51 GF / 20 GA
NK Varazdin NK Varazdin
WLDWL
46 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
2.22
Average Goals Scored
1.84
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
9
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
13
4.53
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 23 matches
NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 25 matches
HNK Hajduk Split Statistic NK Varazdin
17 Wins 15
2 Draws 6
4 Losses 4
51 Goals For 46
20 Goals Against 24
2.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
9 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 9
12 Clean Sheets 11
2 Failed To Score 6
4.53 Shots On Goal 3.18
9.12 Total Shots 11.55
4.12 Corners 3.82
46.6% Ball Possession 39%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring NK Varazdin. HNK Hajduk Split come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

HNK Hajduk Split Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 19 points after 9 matches. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 18:9, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Šego (4 goals), M. Livaja (3 goals), M. Šotiček (2 goals), with creative support from Dali (3 assists), Š. Hrgović (2 assists), Adrion Pajaziti (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

NK Varazdin Analysis

NK Varazdin arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 15 points after 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 13:7 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Ivan Canjuga (2 goals), Ivan Mamut (2 goals), Mario Mladenovski (2 goals), with creative support from Ivan Canjuga (2 assists), Gregor Sikošek (2 assists), Ivan Mamut (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Hajduk Split won 7 times, NK Varazdin won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from HNK Hajduk Split's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1 / NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HNK Hajduk Split wins 7, draws 4, NK Varazdin wins 4

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 1 2 18:9 9 19
W L W W W
2 9 5 3 1 14:7 7 18
W D D D W
3 8 5 1 2 18:11 7 16
L W L W D
4 9 5 1 3 18:14 4 16
L D W L W
5 8 4 2 2 14:11 3 14
L W D W D
6 9 3 3 3 17:14 3 12
W L W D D
7 9 3 1 5 11:17 -6 10
W D L W L
8 9 2 1 6 11:17 -6 7
L L D L L
9 9 2 1 6 12:25 -13 7
W D L L L
10 9 1 2 6 6:14 -8 5
L W D L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL