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24.10.2026 13:00
Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Referee: Ivan Vukančić, Croatia
HNK Gorica
Match Timeline
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
Fran Karačić ↔ Dominik Thaqi
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🔄
57'
Bruno Bogojević ↔ Ivan Cvijanović
HNK Gorica
🟨
65'
Marcel Lorber
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🟨
65'
Fran Karačić
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🔄
67'
Marcel Lorber ↔ Matija Subotic
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🔄
68'
Goncalo Costa ↔ Luka Vrzic
HNK Gorica
🔄
74'
Leon Belcar ↔ Mirko Marić
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🟨
77'
Lovre Kulusic
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🔄
80'
Juraj Frigan ↔ Ognjen Bakic
HNK Gorica
🔄
80'
Ante Erceg ↔ Patrik Mijic
HNK Gorica
🟨
84'
Dušan Stevanović
HNK Gorica
🔄
90'
Dušan Vuković ↔ Marijan Čabraja
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Gorica Win 55.6%
Draw 29.1%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Win 15.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Gorica1.22
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
D L D D W
7 GF / 7 GA
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W L L D L
6 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
14
8
Over 2.5
13
3.1
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 21 matches
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 21 matches
HNK Gorica Statistic NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
6 Wins 10
6 Draws 4
9 Losses 7
24 Goals For 36
28 Goals Against 28
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
3.1 Shots On Goal 3.2
9.9 Total Shots 10.5
3.4 Corners 4.5
44.9% Ball Possession 43.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

HNK Gorica Analysis

HNK Gorica sit 10 with 5 points after 9 league matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 6:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Bogojević (4 goals), I. Cvijanović (1 goals), J. Pranjić (1 goals), with creative support from D. Pavičić (1 assists), Juraj Frigan (1 assists), L. Vrzić (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Analysis

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 7 points from 9 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 11:17, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through D. Vuković (3 goals), T. Triantafyllou (1 goals), M. Marić (1 goals), with creative support from D. Vuković (2 assists), Marko Pajač (2 assists), T. Triantafyllou (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Gorica won 4 times, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:26 from HNK Gorica's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.7%)
Predicted formations: HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1 / NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HNK Gorica wins 4, draws 3, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins 8

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 8 2 2 26:11 15 26
W D W W L
2 11 7 1 3 25:14 11 22
L W W L W
3 12 6 2 4 22:17 5 20
W L D L D
4 12 5 4 3 16:11 5 19
D L L W D
5 11 5 3 3 18:15 3 18
D L W L W
6 12 4 4 4 21:18 3 16
W D L W L
7 12 4 1 7 14:25 -11 13
L W L W D
8 12 4 1 7 15:27 -12 13
W W L W D
9 12 3 2 7 14:20 -6 11
L D W L L
10 12 1 4 7 7:20 -13 7
L D D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL