SENEGAL LIGUE 1
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
HLM Win 35.8%
Draw 18.7%
Guédiawaye Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
HLM0.76
Guédiawaye0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
HLM HLM
WWDLW
13 GF / 20 GA
Guédiawaye Guédiawaye
WLDWL
23 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
0.54
Average Goals Scored
0.96
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HLM HLM 24 matches
Guédiawaye Guédiawaye 24 matches
HLM Statistic Guédiawaye
3 Wins 6
15 Draws 7
6 Losses 11
13 Goals For 23
20 Goals Against 26
0.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 16
5 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 3
12 Clean Sheets 8
14 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Guédiawaye having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. HLM have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guédiawaye. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

HLM Analysis

HLM sit 13 with 24 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 15 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 13:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guédiawaye Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Guédiawaye have collected 24 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, while the 23:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, HLM won 3 times, Guédiawaye won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from HLM's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
H2H summary: HLM wins 3, draws 1, Guédiawaye wins 0
Last matches: HLM
04.06.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
2
1
W
22.05.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
1
L
20.04.26
Lig
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
1
2
L
29.03.26
Lig
HLM
AJEL
3
0
W
25.03.26
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
1
L
15.03.26
Lig
HLM
DSC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
0
0
D
09.02.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
3
L
25.01.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
0
5
L
07.01.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
Last matches: Guédiawaye
04.06.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Teungueth
0
1
L
22.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Stade de Mbour
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Wally Daan
2
3
L
13.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
AJEL
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Ouakam
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
AS Camberene
0
0
D
19.04.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Casa Sport
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Jaraaf
1
2
L
29.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Pikine
1
3
L
26.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Sonacos
3
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Génération Foot
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
La Linguère
3
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Gorée
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
DSC
3
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Teungueth
0
0
D
08.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
02.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Wally Daan
0
1
L
25.01.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
AJEL
0
1
L
11.01.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Ouakam
1
1
D
07.01.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
HLM
0
1
L
H2H: HLM vs Guédiawaye
03.05.26
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
W
07.01.26
H2H
Guédiawaye
HLM
0
1
W
17.03.25
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
03.11.24
H2H
Guédiawaye
HLM
0
1
W
Last matches: HLM
04.06.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
20.04.26
Lig
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D
29.03.26
Lig
HLM
AJEL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
0
0
D
09.02.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
0
5
L
28.12.25
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
0
D
14.12.25
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
2
2
D
30.11.25
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
HLM
DSC
0
1
L
09.11.25
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
1
1
D
H2H at home: HLM
03.05.26
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
W
17.03.25
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
Last matches: Guédiawaye
22.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Stade de Mbour
2
0
W
13.05.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
AJEL
0
1
L
19.04.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Casa Sport
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Jaraaf
1
2
L
26.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Sonacos
3
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
La Linguère
3
1
W
14.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Teungueth
0
0
D
02.02.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Wally Daan
0
1
L
11.01.26
Lig
Guédiawaye
Ouakam
1
1
D
28.12.25
Lig
Guédiawaye
AS Camberene
2
0
W
07.12.25
Lig
Guédiawaye
Pikine
0
3
L
22.11.25
Lig
Guédiawaye
Génération Foot
0
2
L
08.11.25
Lig
Guédiawaye
Gorée
0
1
L
02.11.25
Lig
Guédiawaye
DSC
1
3
L
H2H away: Guédiawaye
03.05.26
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
L
17.03.25
H2H
HLM
Guédiawaye
0
0
D

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2 30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11
HLM Home
30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
?
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation