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08.10.2026 15:00
Bolt Arena
Referee: O. Reitala
HJK Helsinki
Match Timeline
VPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Teemu Pukki
HJK Helsinki
⚽
17'
Mads Borchers
HJK Helsinki
⚽
38'
Mads Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🟨
38'
Mamadou Wurie Jalloh
VPS
🟨
41'
Paulo Lima
VPS
🔄
45'
Miika Niemi ↔ Jayden Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
45'
Paulo Lima ↔ Henri Salomaa
VPS
🔄
45'
Emmanuel Okereke ↔ Razak Simpson
VPS
⚽
53'
Mads Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
57'
Lucas Lingman ↔ Joona Veteli
HJK Helsinki
⚽
61'
Leonel Montano
HJK Helsinki
🔄
66'
Alexander Ring ↔ Martin Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🔄
66'
Teemu Pukki ↔ Mouhamed Gueye
HJK Helsinki
🔄
67'
Antti-Ville Raisanen ↔ Dren terrnava
VPS
⚽
71'
Alfie Cicale · Assist: Martin Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🔄
78'
Nikolai Alho ↔ Pyry Mentu
HJK Helsinki
🔄
78'
Alfie Cicale ↔ Kaius Simojoki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
85'
Wilson Samake ↔ Casper Holmelund
VPS
🟨
90'
Simon Lindholm
VPS

HJK Helsinki vs VPS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
57.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
77.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 62.8%
Draw 4.1%
VPS Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.41
VPS1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
D D W W L
7 GF / 6 GA
VPS VPS
L L W L W
2 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
14
BTTS Yes
15
19
Over 2.5
11
1.62
Shots on Goal
1.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 33 matches
VPS VPS 29 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic VPS
16 Wins 11
7 Draws 7
10 Losses 11
55 Goals For 34
38 Goals Against 30
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
14 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 17
19 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 9
1.62 Shots On Goal 1.48
4.38 Total Shots 4.28
1.79 Corners 1.96
22.5% Ball Possession 25.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward VPS. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and VPS in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control. VPS arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 37 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 36:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Borchers (2 goals), P. Mentu (1 goals), K. Simojoki (1 goals), with creative support from P. Mentu (1 assists), T. Pukki (1 assists), N. Alho (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 6 with 33 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 29:22 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on L. Smyth (3 goals), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 goals), Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi (1 goals), with creative support from K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), J. Turfkruier (1 assists), J. Muzinga (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 3 times, VPS won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:5 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1 / VPS 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: HJK Helsinki wins 3, draws 1, VPS wins 1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
D W L L W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W L W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D W W W D
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
L L L D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W W L W L
6
VPS Away
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W L D L W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L L D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W D W W W
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
L W W D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
W D D W D
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D D L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs