Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
92.8%
|
1.20 | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
26%
|
1.70 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.3%
|
2.92 | |
| Corners O/U | Under 9.5 Corners |
92%
|
2.55 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
1.62 | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
6.50 |
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
HJK Helsinki
13 matches
Mariehamn
12 matches
| HJK Helsinki | Statistic | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 1 |
| 3 | Draws | 6 |
| 5 | Losses | 5 |
| 19 | Goals For | 10 |
| 14 | Goals Against | 19 |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.83 |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
| 6 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 9 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 7 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 0 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 2.11 | Shots On Goal | 1.5 |
| 6.11 | Total Shots | 3.5 |
| 2.22 | Corners | 1.5 |
| 25.1% | Ball Possession | 21.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 12 points compared to Mariehamn in 11 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mariehamn in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
HJK Helsinki come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 12 points from 9 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:8 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Pukki (3 goals), M. Borchers (2 goals), A. Cicale (1 goals), with creative support from D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), P. Mentu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Mariehamn are currently 11 in the standings with 4 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 5:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 11 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:13 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.
Lineups
HJK Helsinki
VPS
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
SJK
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
HJK Helsinki
SJK
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Sleipner
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
SJK
HJK Helsinki
SJK
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 17:8 | 9 | 24 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16:8 | 8 | 21 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16:10 | 6 | 20 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 4 |
HJK Helsinki
Home
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:8 | 5 | 15 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
| 5 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:7 | 1 | 13 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 7 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 2 | 11 |
W
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 11 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:21 | -8 | 9 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8:17 | -9 | 7 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 6 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Away
|
9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5:14 | -9 | 4 |
L
L
D
D
L
|