FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Bolt Arena
Referee: J. Hyytia
HJK Helsinki
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Leo Andersson
Mariehamn
🟨
28'
Noah Nurmi
Mariehamn
🟨
40'
Lucas Lingman
HJK Helsinki
48'
A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🔄
61'
L. Moller ↔ T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
61'
M. Borchers ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
63'
Emmanuel Patut
Mariehamn
🔄
67'
N. Nurmi ↔ J. Heyden
Mariehamn
🔄
67'
E. Patut ↔ N. Dosis
Mariehamn
🔄
71'
D. Ezeh ↔ T. Mero
HJK Helsinki
🔄
76'
L. Andersson ↔ L. Pearce
Mariehamn
🔄
76'
S. Ngulube ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🔄
77'
L. Montano ↔ B. Lyons-Foster
HJK Helsinki
🔄
77'
A. Ring ↔ J. Kallinen
HJK Helsinki
🔄
77'
M. Hyvonen ↔ A. Huttunen
Mariehamn
🟨
90+8'
Martin Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90+8'
Aaro Soiniemi
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.8%
Odds 1.20
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds 2.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.8%
1.20
BTTS BTTS No
26%
1.70
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
2.92
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
2.55
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.62
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 92.8%
Draw 0%
Mariehamn Win 7.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.51
Mariehamn0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WWDLW
19 GF / 14 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
10 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
6
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
4
2.11
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 13 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 12 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic Mariehamn
5 Wins 1
3 Draws 6
5 Losses 5
19 Goals For 10
14 Goals Against 19
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
6 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 5
2.11 Shots On Goal 1.5
6.11 Total Shots 3.5
2.22 Corners 1.5
25.1% Ball Possession 21.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 12 points compared to Mariehamn in 11 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mariehamn in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 12 points from 9 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:8 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Pukki (3 goals), M. Borchers (2 goals), A. Cicale (1 goals), with creative support from D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), P. Mentu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn are currently 11 in the standings with 4 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 5:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 11 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:13 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-3-3 / Mariehamn 5-3-2
H2H summary: HJK Helsinki wins 11, draws 1, Mariehamn wins 3

Lineups

HJK Helsinki
Formation
Mariehamn
M. Markovic
M. Markovic
M. Ylitolva
M. Ylitolva
E. Levealahti
E. Levealahti
V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen
L. Montano
L. Montano
L. Lingman
L. Lingman
A. Ring
A. Ring
D. Ezeh
D. Ezeh
L. Moller
L. Moller
A. Cicale
A. Cicale
M. Borchers
M. Borchers
K. Lund
K. Lund
J. Nissinen
J. Nissinen
P. Lindgren
P. Lindgren
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
Y. Amankwah
Y. Amankwah
T. Koivisto
T. Koivisto
E. Patut
E. Patut
S. Dahlstrom
S. Dahlstrom
M. Hyvonen
M. Hyvonen
L. Andersson
L. Andersson
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
44
M. Markovic
G
28
M. Ylitolva
D
24
E. Levealahti
D
6
V. Tikkanen
D
14
L. Montano
↓ 77'
D
10
L. Lingman
🟨 40'
M
4
A. Ring
⚽ 48' ↓ 77'
M
19
D. Ezeh
↓ 71'
F
22
L. Moller
↓ 61'
M
7
A. Cicale
M
9
M. Borchers
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Ost
G
20
T. Pukki
↑ 61'
F
31
M. Bogicevic
D
18
T. Mero
↑ 71'
M
2
B. Lyons-Foster
↑ 77'
D
15
J. Kallinen
↑ 77'
M
11
R. Hudd
M
17
M. Kirilov
↑ 61' 🟨 90+8'
M
Mariehamn 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
K. Lund
G
28
J. Nissinen
D
4
P. Lindgren
D
2
N. Nurmi
↓ 67' 🟨 28'
D
31
S. Ngulube
↓ 76'
D
38
Y. Amankwah
D
5
T. Koivisto
D
20
E. Patut
↓ 67' 🟨 63'
M
10
S. Dahlstrom
M
64
M. Hyvonen
↓ 77'
F
43
L. Andersson
↓ 76' 🟨 20'
F
Substitutes
32
M. Riikonen
G
15
J. Heyden
↑ 67'
M
6
N. Dosis
↑ 67'
M
16
A. Huttunen
↑ 77'
M
11
L. Pearce
↑ 76'
F
3
A. Soiniemi
↑ 76' 🟨 90+8'
D
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H: HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn
30.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.01.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
0
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
8
2
W
24.05.25
H2H
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
W
14.02.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
1
2
W
20.04.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
W
26.01.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
05.08.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.05.23
H2H
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
27.01.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.06.22
H2H
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
16.03.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
0
W
05.02.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
3
L
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
H2H at home: HJK Helsinki
30.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.01.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
0
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
8
2
W
14.02.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
W
20.04.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
W
26.01.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
05.08.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.01.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.03.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
0
W
05.02.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
3
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
30.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
L
16.01.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
0
1
W
24.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
8
2
L
14.02.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
L
20.04.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
1
L
26.01.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
L
05.08.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
2
L
27.01.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
3
0
L
30.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
L
16.03.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
0
L
05.02.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
2
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 13.86
Draw 7.33
Home 1.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 10.09
Draw 3.12
Home 1.58
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 2.5 1.42
Over 2.75 1.52
Over 3.0 1.65
Over 3.25 1.88
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 3.75 2.39
Over 4.5 3.53
Over 5.5 6.59
Under 1.5 6.34
Under 2.5 2.92
Under 2.75 2.63
Under 3.0 2.32
Under 3.25 1.99
Under 3.5 1.78
Under 3.75 1.61
Under 4.5 1.31
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 12.00
Draw 6.50
Home 1.17
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 11.00
Draw 3.00
Home 1.53
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 8.50
Draw 3.40
Home 1.44
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.40
Over 3.5 2.00
Over 4.5 3.40
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 23.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 21.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.88
Under 3.5 1.73
Under 4.5 1.30
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 13.50
Draw 7.10
Home 1.17
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 9.90
Draw 2.93
Home 1.53
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 10.10
Draw 3.72
Home 1.37
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.08
Over 1.75 1.10
Over 2.0 1.12
Over 2.25 1.24
Over 2.5 1.37
Over 2.75 1.47
Over 3.0 1.58
Over 3.25 1.84
Over 3.5 2.04
Over 3.75 2.24
Over 4.0 2.65
Over 4.25 2.89
Over 4.5 3.18
Over 4.75 3.82
Over 5.0 5.00
Over 5.25 5.30
Over 5.5 5.60
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 23.00
Over 8.5 50.00
Under 0.5 16.00
Under 1.0 12.00
Under 1.5 5.65
Under 1.75 5.20
Under 2.0 4.75
Under 2.25 3.34
Under 2.5 2.68
Under 2.75 2.44
Under 3.0 2.18
Under 3.25 1.93
Under 3.5 1.75
Under 3.75 1.55
Under 4.0 1.40
Under 4.25 1.32
Under 4.5 1.27
Under 4.75 1.19
Under 5.0 1.10
Under 5.25 1.09
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 12.00
Draw 6.40
Home 1.18
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 8.00
Draw 3.05
Home 1.52
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 8.00
Draw 3.60
Home 1.44
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.10
Over 2.0 1.13
Over 2.25 1.25
Over 2.5 1.36
Over 2.75 1.43
Over 3.0 1.53
Over 3.25 1.73
Over 3.5 1.92
Over 3.75 2.17
Over 4.0 2.55
Over 4.25 2.80
Over 4.5 3.05
Over 4.75 3.65
Over 5.0 4.70
Over 5.25 5.00
Over 5.5 5.20
Over 5.75 6.25
Over 6.0 9.00
Under 1.5 5.75
Under 2.0 5.00
Under 2.25 3.50
Under 2.5 2.85
Under 2.75 2.55
Under 3.0 2.28
Under 3.25 1.96
Under 3.5 1.77
Under 3.75 1.61
Under 4.0 1.45
Under 4.25 1.38
Under 4.5 1.30
Under 4.75 1.23
Under 5.0 1.14
Under 5.25 1.13
Under 5.5 1.12
Under 5.75 1.08
Under 6.0 1.04

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 17:8 9 24
D W W W W
2 10 7 0 3 16:8 8 21
W W W L W
3 11 5 5 1 16:10 6 20
D W W D D
4 10 4 3 3 13:8 5 15
W L D L W
5 9 4 3 2 11:8 3 15
W L L W D
6 9 3 4 2 8:7 1 13
L W D D W
7 9 3 2 4 12:10 2 11
W L D D L
8 9 3 2 4 13:15 -2 11
W L W D W
9 10 2 3 5 13:21 -8 9
L W L D W
10 10 1 4 5 8:17 -9 7
L W L L L
11 9 1 3 5 8:14 -6 6
L L L D D
12 9 0 4 5 5:14 -9 4
L L D D L