FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Bolt Arena
Referee: M. Al-Emara
HJK Helsinki
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Ville Tikkanen
HJK Helsinki
21'
M. Stjopin
Ilves
43'
B. Lyons-Foster
HJK Helsinki
59'
M. Stjopin · Assist: T. Hytonen
Ilves
🔄
61'
T. Mero ↔ A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🔄
62'
O. Tiitinen ↔ A. Popovitch
Ilves
🔄
62'
Y. Raap ↔ O. Multala
Ilves
🔄
71'
A. Cicale ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🔄
71'
J. Kallinen ↔ M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
76'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
76'
↔ J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
76'
K. Wallius ↔ S. Suvanne
Ilves
🟨
79'
Mihailo Bogićević
HJK Helsinki
83'
M. Borchers · Assist: T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
T. Pukki ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90'
Mihailo Bogićević
HJK Helsinki
🟥
90'
Mihailo Bogićević
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90+2'
Maksim Stjopin
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 90.6%
Draw 0%
Ilves Win 9.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.39
Ilves1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WWDLW
16 GF / 10 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
21 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
2.1
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
4
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
5
2
Shots on Goal
1.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 11 matches
Ilves Ilves 10 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic Ilves
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 4
16 Goals For 21
10 Goals Against 13
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 2.1
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
2 Shots On Goal 1.83
5.71 Total Shots 5.5
2.43 Corners 2
24% Ball Possession 22.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ilves. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 11 points compared to Ilves in 9 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ilves in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

Placed 5 with 11 points from 7 outings, HJK Helsinki continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:4 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Pukki (3 goals), A. Cicale (1 goals), D. Ezeh (1 goals), with creative support from D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), P. Mentu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves are currently 9 in the standings with 5 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 8:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Hytonen (3 goals), Jardell Kanga (1 goals), M. Stjopin (1 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (3 assists), O. Pettersson (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 6 times, Ilves won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:20 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-3-3 / Ilves 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HJK Helsinki wins 6, draws 4, Ilves wins 4
Stats
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
Ilves Ilves
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 6
3 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 6
5 Goalkeeper Saves 4
689 Total passes 484
615 Passes accurate 424
2.12 expected_goals 1.07
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

HJK Helsinki
Formation
Ilves
M. Markovic
M. Markovic
M. Ylitolva
M. Ylitolva
M. Bogicevic
M. Bogicevic
V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen
B. Lyons-Foster
B. Lyons-Foster
L. Moller
L. Moller
L. Lingman
L. Lingman
J. Kallinen
J. Kallinen
T. Mero
T. Mero
T. Pukki
🎯
T. Pukki
A. Cicale
A. Cicale
O. Virtanen
O. Virtanen
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
T. Miettunen
T. Miettunen
M. Rale
M. Rale
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson
O. Tiitinen
O. Tiitinen
Y. Raap
Y. Raap
J. Kilo
J. Kilo
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
M. Stjopin
⚽ 2
M. Stjopin
T. Hytonen
🎯
T. Hytonen
HJK Helsinki 4-3-3
Starting XI
44
M. Markovic
G
28
M. Ylitolva
D
31
M. Bogicevic
🟨 79' 🟨 90' 🟥 90'
D
6
V. Tikkanen
🟨 20'
D
2
B. Lyons-Foster
⚽ 43'
D
22
L. Moller
M
10
L. Lingman
M
15
J. Kallinen
↓ 71'
M
18
T. Mero
↓ 61'
F
20
T. Pukki
🎯 83' ↓ 84'
F
7
A. Cicale
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Ost
G
4
A. Ring
↑ 61'
M
26
L. Lappalainen
↑ 71'
M
19
D. Ezeh
F
24
E. Levealahti
D
92
M. Abdulmuttaleb
D
9
M. Borchers
⚽ 83' ↑ 71'
M
17
M. Kirilov
↑ 84'
F
Ilves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
O. Virtanen
G
24
V. Kumpu
D
16
T. Miettunen
D
3
M. Rale
D
4
O. Pettersson
↓ 76'
20
O. Tiitinen
↓ 62'
M
6
Y. Raap
↓ 62'
M
28
J. Kilo
M
13
K. Wallius
↓ 76'
M
8
M. Stjopin
⚽ 21' ⚽ 59' 🟨 90+2'
M
9
T. Hytonen
🎯 59'
F
Substitutes
12
F. Krkalic
G
14
A. Popovitch
↑ 62'
M
22
O. Multala
↑ 62'
M
19
G. Bamba
↑ 76'
M
30
J. Kanga
↑ 76'
M
23
A. Raymond
D
33
O. Paavola
25
S. Suvanne
↑ 76'
M
17
S. Baranov
M
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
Last matches: Ilves
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H: HJK Helsinki vs Ilves
16.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
30.10.25
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
3
1
L
29.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
11.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
5
1
W
05.04.25
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
3
2
L
28.09.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
0
1
L
06.07.24
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
3
0
L
25.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
1
D
10.02.24
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
22.07.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
0
W
21.05.23
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
11.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
1
W
23.07.22
H2H
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
1
2
W
08.05.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
1
W
22.01.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
0
W
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
H2H at home: HJK Helsinki
16.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
29.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
11.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
5
1
W
28.09.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
0
1
L
25.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
1
D
22.07.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
0
W
11.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
1
W
08.05.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
1
W
22.01.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
0
W
Last matches: Ilves
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
16.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
29.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
11.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
5
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
0
1
W
25.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
1
D
22.07.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
1
0
L
11.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
1
L
08.05.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
1
L
22.01.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
3
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8
Ilves Away
12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)