20.09.2026 19:00
Wanderers Grounds

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 78%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.51
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
78%
1.17
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.51
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
84%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
HFX Wanderers FC Win 39.4%
Draw 38.6%
York United Win 22%
Expected Goals (xG)
HFX Wanderers FC1.61
York United1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC
WWDLW
31 GF / 37 GA
York United York United
WLDWL
30 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
2
14
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
12
2.36
Shots on Goal
2.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC 23 matches
York United York United 21 matches
HFX Wanderers FC Statistic York United
6 Wins 6
6 Draws 8
11 Losses 7
31 Goals For 30
37 Goals Against 42
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 2
14 BTTS Yes 16
16 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
2.36 Shots On Goal 2.2
6.14 Total Shots 5
2.45 Corners 1.35
29.1% Ball Possession 20.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward York United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. HFX Wanderers FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HFX Wanderers FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and York United in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward York United having the stronger overall control.

HFX Wanderers FC Analysis

HFX Wanderers FC sit 5 with 23 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:37, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Johnston (2 goals), J. Bahamboula (1 goals), with creative support from L. Callegari (1 assists), I. A. Hassan (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

York United Analysis

York United are currently 7 in the standings with 20 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:41 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Singh (1 goals), K. Clarke (1 goals), K. Kibato (1 goals), with creative support from O. Bassett (1 assists), O. León (1 assists), J. Almagro (1 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HFX Wanderers FC won 5 times, York United won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:23 from HFX Wanderers FC's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (78%)
Predicted formations: HFX Wanderers FC 4-3-3 / York United 3-4-3
H2H summary: HFX Wanderers FC wins 5, draws 5, York United wins 5

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2 22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 22 10 4 8 34:37 -3 34
L D W L W
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 22 6 5 11 31:37 -6 23
W L L W L
6 20 5 8 7 29:42 -13 23
W D D L D
7 21 6 4 11 29:38 -9 22
L L W D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W