TURKEY 1. LIG
--.--.---- --:--
Mersin Stadyumu
Referee: O. F. Gultekin
Hatayspor
Match Timeline
Vanspor FK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
37'
Xesc Regis
Vanspor FK
🟨
44'
Yunus Azrak
Hatayspor
🟨
47'
Aliou Badara Traore
Vanspor FK
🔄
55'
M. Coksu ↔ F. C. Genc
Vanspor FK
🔄
63'
A. Yildiz ↔ M. Sen
Hatayspor
🔄
63'
S. M. Aydin ↔ C. B. Aksu
Hatayspor
65'
U. Durmushan · Assist: S. Gazanfer
Hatayspor
🟨
68'
Cemil Aksu
Hatayspor
🟨
69'
Emir Dadük
Hatayspor
🔄
69'
A. Yildrim ↔ M. Ozcan
Vanspor FK
🔄
72'
C. Yilmaz ↔ D. Aksoy
Hatayspor
73'
Y. Azrak · Assist: E. Arslan
Hatayspor
🟨
75'
Santeri Hostikka
Vanspor FK
86'
E. Arslan · Assist: M. Gonulacar
Hatayspor
🔄
87'
E. Arslan ↔ R. Chaadaev
Hatayspor
🔄
88'
Y. Azrak ↔ E. Aydemir
Hatayspor
90'
S. Hostikka · Assist: Xesc
Vanspor FK

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 80%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 89.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
80%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
89.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Hatayspor Win 20%
Draw 0%
Vanspor FK Win 80%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hatayspor0.96
Vanspor FK1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hatayspor Hatayspor
WWDLW
30 GF / 101 GA
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK
WLDWL
51 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.38
2.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
20
BTTS Yes
18
28
Over 2.5
19
2.46
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hatayspor Hatayspor 37 matches
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK 37 matches
Hatayspor Statistic Vanspor FK
1 Wins 13
8 Draws 10
28 Losses 14
30 Goals For 51
101 Goals Against 44
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
2.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
20 BTTS Yes 18
35 Over 1.5 25
28 Over 2.5 19
19 Over 3.5 10
1 Clean Sheets 10
16 Failed To Score 14
2.46 Shots On Goal 4.24
7.49 Total Shots 11.43
2.59 Corners 4.27
45.9% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vanspor FK's more proactive style and Hatayspor's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hatayspor expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Vanspor FK in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vanspor FK having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vanspor FK. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Vanspor FK carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 49 points while Hatayspor sit 19 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Hatayspor Analysis

Hatayspor approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 11 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 28 defeats with a 30:101 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Bamgboye (3 goals), G. Saglam (3 goals), J. Okoronkwo (3 goals), with creative support from Kerim Alıcı (3 assists), F. Bamgboye (2 assists), J. Okoronkwo (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vanspor FK Analysis

Vanspor FK approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 49 points from 37 matches. Their record of 13 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 51:44, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Bikoue (15 goals), Jefferson (5 goals), Xesc (5 goals), with creative support from Bikoue (6 assists), Erdem Seçgin (5 assists), Jefferson (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Hatayspor won 1 times, Vanspor FK won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Hatayspor's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Hatayspor 4-1-3-2 / Vanspor FK 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Hatayspor wins 1, draws 0, Vanspor FK wins 1
Stats
Hatayspor Hatayspor
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
13
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Goal 7
6 Shots off Goal 13
0 Blocked Shots 2
4 Shots insidebox 12
5 Shots outsidebox 10
6 Goalkeeper Saves 0
330 Total passes 365
267 Passes accurate 308
1.40 expected_goals 2.34
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Hatayspor
Formation
Vanspor FK
E. Daduk
E. Daduk
S. Gazanfer
🎯
S. Gazanfer
H. Cinemre
H. Cinemre
M. Gonulacar
🎯
M. Gonulacar
C. Dogan
C. Dogan
S. M. Aydin
S. M. Aydin
A. Yildiz
A. Yildiz
Y. Azrak
Y. Azrak
U. Durmushan
U. Durmushan
E. Arslan
🎯
E. Arslan
C. Yilmaz
C. Yilmaz
B. Gebecelioglu
B. Gebecelioglu
E. Bars
E. Bars
Jefferson
Jefferson
M. Bingol
M. Bingol
G. Usta
G. Usta
A. Demirol
A. Demirol
A. Traore
A. Traore
Xesc
🎯
Xesc
A. Yildrim
A. Yildrim
S. Hostikka
S. Hostikka
M. Coksu
M. Coksu
Hatayspor 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
78
E. Daduk
🟨 69'
G
21
S. Gazanfer
🎯 65'
D
5
H. Cinemre
D
4
M. Gonulacar
🎯 86'
D
23
C. Dogan
98
S. M. Aydin
↓ 63'
M
20
A. Yildiz
↓ 63'
M
25
Y. Azrak
⚽ 73' ↓ 88' 🟨 44'
M
18
U. Durmushan
⚽ 65'
M
85
E. Arslan
⚽ 86' 🎯 73' ↓ 87'
F
17
C. Yilmaz
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
37
A. Cukuroglu
G
81
R. Chaadaev
↑ 87'
M
47
S. Ozen
D
97
M. Sen
↑ 63'
D
24
A. Bayam
F
9
D. Aksoy
↑ 72'
F
33
E. Aydemir
↑ 88'
F
19
C. B. Aksu
↑ 63' 🟨 68'
M
66
A. Abdulkadir
M
57
M. Danjuma
M
Vanspor FK 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
16
B. Gebecelioglu
G
45
E. Bars
D
10
Jefferson
D
65
M. Bingol
77
G. Usta
21
A. Demirol
M
8
A. Traore
🟨 47'
M
11
Xesc
🎯 90'
82
A. Yildrim
↓ 69'
7
S. Hostikka
⚽ 90' 🟨 75'
M
90
M. Coksu
↓ 55'
Substitutes
73
S. Olmez
G
33
C. T. Benzer
G
41
M. Ozcan
↑ 69'
M
91
B. Yagizer
61
F. C. Genc
↑ 55'
D
98
S. Tumen
M
78
H. E. Demirag
D
85
I. Satici
D
Last matches: Hatayspor
25.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
2
4
L
18.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
1
1
D
11.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sarıyer
0
4
L
07.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor
4
0
W
03.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Pendikspor
1
4
L
22.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Amed
0
3
L
15.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Erzurumspor FK
0
3
L
11.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sivasspor
1
2
L
07.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Çorum FK
1
3
L
28.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bodrum FK
1
3
L
22.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bandırmaspor
0
4
L
17.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Iğdır FK
0
2
L
13.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Boluspor
1
3
L
07.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Esenler Erokspor
0
5
L
30.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
İstanbulspor
0
1
L
25.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Manisa F.K.
2
2
D
11.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Keçiörengücü
0
5
L
27.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
0
4
L
21.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
1
1
D
Last matches: Vanspor FK
25.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
İstanbulspor
1
3
L
19.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
2
1
W
12.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Manisa F.K.
0
1
L
08.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Serik Spor
6
1
W
04.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Keçiörengücü
0
3
L
22.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Sarıyer
0
0
D
15.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Sakaryaspor
1
2
L
10.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Adana Demirspor
1
0
W
06.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
1
1
D
28.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
0
3
L
23.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Amed
0
1
L
19.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Bodrum FK
3
1
W
14.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Sivasspor
3
3
D
07.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Çorum FK
3
1
W
01.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Bandırmaspor
0
2
L
24.01.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Iğdır FK
3
0
W
17.01.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Esenler Erokspor
0
0
D
09.01.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Boluspor
0
1
L
27.12.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Hatayspor
4
0
W
21.12.25
1.
Vanspor FK
İstanbulspor
3
1
W
H2H: Hatayspor vs Vanspor FK
01.05.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
3
1
W
27.12.25
H2H
Vanspor FK
Hatayspor
4
0
L
Last matches: Hatayspor
18.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
1
1
D
07.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor
4
0
W
22.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Amed
0
3
L
11.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sivasspor
1
2
L
28.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bodrum FK
1
3
L
17.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Iğdır FK
0
2
L
07.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Esenler Erokspor
0
5
L
25.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Manisa F.K.
2
2
D
21.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
1
1
D
08.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Sarıyer
0
3
L
22.11.25
1.
Hatayspor
Pendikspor
0
1
L
31.10.25
1.
Hatayspor
Erzurumspor FK
0
3
L
18.10.25
1.
Hatayspor
Çorum FK
1
4
L
28.09.25
1.
Hatayspor
Bandırmaspor
0
3
L
19.09.25
1.
Hatayspor
Boluspor
2
2
D
30.08.25
1.
Hatayspor
İstanbulspor
1
1
D
09.08.25
1.
Hatayspor
Keçiörengücü
1
3
L
H2H at home: Hatayspor
01.05.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
3
1
W
Last matches: Vanspor FK
19.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
2
1
W
08.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Serik Spor
6
1
W
04.04.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Keçiörengücü
0
3
L
15.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Sakaryaspor
1
2
L
06.03.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
1
1
D
23.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Amed
0
1
L
14.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Sivasspor
3
3
D
01.02.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Bandırmaspor
0
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Vanspor FK
Esenler Erokspor
0
0
D
21.12.25
1.
Vanspor FK
İstanbulspor
3
1
W
07.12.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Manisa F.K.
1
2
L
07.11.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Sarıyer
1
2
L
25.10.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Adana Demirspor
4
2
W
04.10.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
1
1
D
24.09.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Bodrum FK
0
2
L
13.09.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Çorum FK
0
0
D
23.08.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Iğdır FK
0
0
D
10.08.25
1.
Vanspor FK
Boluspor
3
2
W
H2H away: Vanspor FK
01.05.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
3
1
L

Standings

1. Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 23 12 3 82:27 55 81
D D D W W
2 38 21 11 6 81:42 39 74
D D L D D
3 38 21 11 6 81:35 46 74
L D L W W
4 38 21 8 9 63:39 24 71
W W L W D
5 38 18 10 10 71:39 32 64
L W W L D
6 38 16 15 7 58:33 25 63
L D W D D
7 38 16 12 10 73:43 30 60
L W W L D
8 38 16 12 10 47:34 13 60
W D W D D
9 38 16 7 15 57:56 1 55
W L W W W
10 38 14 11 13 47:43 4 53
L W L L W
11 38 13 13 12 57:55 2 52
W W W W L
12 38 15 7 16 44:44 0 52
W W L W D
13 38 13 11 14 52:54 -2 50
D L D W L
14 38 13 10 15 52:47 5 49
L L W L W
15 38 14 6 18 61:57 4 48
W L W L L
16 38 13 7 18 47:51 -4 46
L W L D W
17 38 11 6 21 44:75 -31 39
L W L D L
18 38 8 10 20 45:72 -27 34
L L D L L
19 38 2 8 28 33:102 -69 14
W L D L W
20 38 1 3 34 22:169 -147 -57
L L L L L