TURKEY 1. LIG
--.--.---- --:--
Mersin Stadyumu
Referee: I. Avci
Hatayspor
Match Timeline
Sakaryaspor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
M. Bostan · Assist: S. Kutuk
Sakaryaspor
🟨
36'
Alparslan Demir
Sakaryaspor
🔄
46'
A. Demir ↔ E. Erdogan
Sakaryaspor
🔄
46'
S. Kutuk ↔ M. Fofana
Sakaryaspor
🟨
55'
Kerem Şen
Sakaryaspor
57'
H. Cinemre · Assist: Y. Azrak
Hatayspor
🔄
66'
Y. A. Buz ↔ M. Sen
Hatayspor
🔄
66'
E. Arslan ↔ M. Danjuma
Hatayspor
🔄
72'
L. Zwolinski ↔ H. Karatas
Sakaryaspor
🔄
75'
P. Ating ↔ A. Yildiz
Hatayspor
🔄
75'
Y. Azrak ↔ D. Aksoy
Hatayspor
🔄
82'
M. Bostan ↔ E. Dagli
Sakaryaspor
🔄
87'
U. Durmushan ↔ C. Yilmaz
Hatayspor
🔄
88'
E. Demir ↔ Y. Tekerci
Sakaryaspor

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
68.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Hatayspor Win 40.6%
Draw 16.4%
Sakaryaspor Win 43%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hatayspor1.16
Sakaryaspor1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hatayspor Hatayspor
WWDLW
27 GF / 96 GA
Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor
WLDWL
44 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.29
2.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.74
18
BTTS Yes
20
27
Over 2.5
17
2.26
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hatayspor Hatayspor 35 matches
Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 34 matches
Hatayspor Statistic Sakaryaspor
1 Wins 8
7 Draws 9
27 Losses 17
27 Goals For 44
96 Goals Against 59
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
2.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.74
18 BTTS Yes 20
33 Over 1.5 30
27 Over 2.5 17
18 Over 3.5 12
1 Clean Sheets 5
16 Failed To Score 10
2.26 Shots On Goal 3.97
7.14 Total Shots 10.76
2.54 Corners 4.09
45.9% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Sakaryaspor. Sakaryaspor carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 18 with 33 points while Hatayspor sit 19 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hatayspor expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sakaryaspor in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sakaryaspor having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Hatayspor Analysis

Hatayspor approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 10 points from 35 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 27 losses, together with goals at 27:96, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through F. Bamgboye (3 goals), G. Saglam (3 goals), J. Okoronkwo (3 goals), with creative support from F. Bamgboye (2 assists), J. Okoronkwo (2 assists), Oguzhan Matur (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sakaryaspor Analysis

Sakaryaspor sit 18 with 33 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats with a 43:60 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on G. Kakuta (8 goals), W. Ben Yedder (5 goals), Łukasz Zwoliński (4 goals), with creative support from S. Yavuz (4 assists), Caner Erkin (4 assists), G. Kakuta (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Hatayspor won 2 times, Sakaryaspor won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:5 from Hatayspor's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Hatayspor 4-2-3-1 / Sakaryaspor 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Hatayspor wins 2, draws 1, Sakaryaspor wins 1
Stats
Hatayspor Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 2
13 Fouls 22
5 Offsides 2
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
344 Total passes 379
272 Passes accurate 312
0.95 expected_goals 1.57
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Hatayspor
Formation
Sakaryaspor
E. Daduk
E. Daduk
S. Gazanfer
S. Gazanfer
H. Cinemre
H. Cinemre
Y. A. Buz
Y. A. Buz
C. Dogan
C. Dogan
M. Gonulacar
M. Gonulacar
S. Osman
S. Osman
Y. Azrak
🎯
Y. Azrak
U. Durmushan
U. Durmushan
E. Arslan
E. Arslan
P. Ating
P. Ating
A. Dadakdeniz
A. Dadakdeniz
A. Demir
A. Demir
B. Bekaroglu
B. Bekaroglu
A. Kocaman
A. Kocaman
A. Okumus
A. Okumus
S. Kutuk
🎯
S. Kutuk
K. Sen
K. Sen
M. Bostan
M. Bostan
E. Demir
E. Demir
P. Yildirim
P. Yildirim
L. Zwolinski
L. Zwolinski
Hatayspor 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
78
E. Daduk
G
21
S. Gazanfer
D
5
H. Cinemre
⚽ 57'
D
95
Y. A. Buz
↓ 66'
D
23
C. Dogan
4
M. Gonulacar
M
48
S. Osman
M
25
Y. Azrak
🎯 57' ↓ 75'
M
18
U. Durmushan
↓ 87'
M
85
E. Arslan
↓ 66'
F
90
P. Ating
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
34
D. Saricali
G
47
S. Ozen
D
98
S. M. Aydin
M
97
M. Sen
↑ 66'
D
20
A. Yildiz
↑ 75'
F
17
C. Yilmaz
↑ 87'
M
9
D. Aksoy
↑ 75'
F
33
E. Aydemir
F
30
E. Guler
F
57
M. Danjuma
↑ 66'
M
Sakaryaspor 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Dadakdeniz
G
25
A. Demir
↓ 46' 🟨 36'
D
86
B. Bekaroglu
D
43
A. Kocaman
D
22
A. Okumus
D
80
S. Kutuk
🎯 11' ↓ 46'
16
K. Sen
🟨 55'
M
91
M. Bostan
⚽ 11' ↓ 82'
M
14
E. Demir
↓ 88'
M
99
P. Yildirim
M
9
L. Zwolinski
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
34
G. Baytekin
G
7
M. Demir
M
77
E. Erdogan
↑ 46'
F
17
H. Karatas
↑ 72'
M
85
M. Fofana
↑ 46'
M
94
D. Tuzcu
D
18
E. Dagli
↑ 82'
28
O. Coban
D
26
A. Acikgoz
30
Y. Tekerci
↑ 88'
F
Last matches: Hatayspor
01.05.26
1.
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
3
1
W
25.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
2
4
L
11.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sarıyer
0
4
L
07.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor
4
0
W
03.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Pendikspor
1
4
L
22.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Amed
0
3
L
15.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Erzurumspor FK
0
3
L
11.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sivasspor
1
2
L
07.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Çorum FK
1
3
L
28.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bodrum FK
1
3
L
22.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bandırmaspor
0
4
L
17.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Iğdır FK
0
2
L
13.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Boluspor
1
3
L
07.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Esenler Erokspor
0
5
L
30.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
İstanbulspor
0
1
L
25.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Manisa F.K.
2
2
D
11.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Keçiörengücü
0
5
L
27.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
0
4
L
21.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
1
1
D
Last matches: Sakaryaspor
01.05.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Manisa F.K.
0
5
L
26.04.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Çorum FK
0
4
L
13.04.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Esenler Erokspor
1
2
L
08.04.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
04.04.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
İstanbulspor
2
2
D
21.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Serik Spor
0
2
L
15.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Vanspor FK
2
1
W
11.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Keçiörengücü
1
1
D
06.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Adana Demirspor
4
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Sarıyer
0
0
D
23.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Sivasspor
1
4
L
19.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Pendikspor
0
2
L
15.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Amed
1
1
D
09.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Erzurumspor FK
0
1
L
01.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Boluspor
0
2
L
26.01.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Bodrum FK
0
2
L
19.01.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Iğdır FK
0
1
L
10.01.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Bandırmaspor
1
1
D
26.12.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Manisa F.K.
0
2
L
21.12.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Çorum FK
0
2
L
H2H: Hatayspor vs Sakaryaspor
18.04.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
1
1
D
15.12.25
H2H
Sakaryaspor
Hatayspor
3
0
L
16.01.24
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
5
1
W
11.09.23
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
2
0
W
Last matches: Hatayspor
01.05.26
1.
Hatayspor
Vanspor FK
3
1
W
07.04.26
1.
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor
4
0
W
22.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Amed
0
3
L
11.03.26
1.
Hatayspor
Sivasspor
1
2
L
28.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Bodrum FK
1
3
L
17.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Iğdır FK
0
2
L
07.02.26
1.
Hatayspor
Esenler Erokspor
0
5
L
25.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Hatayspor
Manisa F.K.
2
2
D
21.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Serik Spor
1
1
D
08.12.25
1.
Hatayspor
Sarıyer
0
3
L
22.11.25
1.
Hatayspor
Pendikspor
0
1
L
31.10.25
1.
Hatayspor
Erzurumspor FK
0
3
L
18.10.25
1.
Hatayspor
Çorum FK
1
4
L
28.09.25
1.
Hatayspor
Bandırmaspor
0
3
L
19.09.25
1.
Hatayspor
Boluspor
2
2
D
30.08.25
1.
Hatayspor
İstanbulspor
1
1
D
09.08.25
1.
Hatayspor
Keçiörengücü
1
3
L
H2H at home: Hatayspor
18.04.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
1
1
D
16.01.24
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
5
1
W
11.09.23
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
2
0
W
Last matches: Sakaryaspor
01.05.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Manisa F.K.
0
5
L
08.04.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Ümraniyespor
0
2
L
21.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Serik Spor
0
2
L
11.03.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Keçiörengücü
1
1
D
23.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Sivasspor
1
4
L
15.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Amed
1
1
D
01.02.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Boluspor
0
2
L
19.01.26
1.
Sakaryaspor
Iğdır FK
0
1
L
21.12.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Çorum FK
0
2
L
06.12.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Esenler Erokspor
1
4
L
22.11.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
İstanbulspor
3
3
D
02.11.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Vanspor FK
2
3
L
18.10.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Adana Demirspor
6
0
W
05.10.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Sarıyer
2
1
W
25.09.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Pendikspor
1
4
L
15.09.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Erzurumspor FK
1
1
D
23.08.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Bodrum FK
1
3
L
10.08.25
1.
Sakaryaspor
Bandırmaspor
1
1
D
H2H away: Sakaryaspor
18.04.26
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
1
1
D
16.01.24
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
5
1
L
11.09.23
H2H
Hatayspor
Sakaryaspor
2
0
L

Standings

1. Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 23 12 3 82:27 55 81
D D D W W
2 38 21 11 6 81:42 39 74
D D L D D
3 38 21 11 6 81:35 46 74
L D L W W
4 38 21 8 9 63:39 24 71
W W L W D
5 38 18 10 10 71:39 32 64
L W W L D
6 38 16 15 7 58:33 25 63
L D W D D
7 38 16 12 10 73:43 30 60
L W W L D
8 38 16 12 10 47:34 13 60
W D W D D
9 38 16 7 15 57:56 1 55
W L W W W
10 38 14 11 13 47:43 4 53
L W L L W
11 38 13 13 12 57:55 2 52
W W W W L
12 38 15 7 16 44:44 0 52
W W L W D
13 38 13 11 14 52:54 -2 50
D L D W L
14 38 13 10 15 52:47 5 49
L L W L W
15 38 14 6 18 61:57 4 48
W L W L L
16 38 13 7 18 47:51 -4 46
L W L D W
17 38 11 6 21 44:75 -31 39
L W L D L
18 38 8 10 20 45:72 -27 34
L L D L L
19 38 2 8 28 33:102 -69 14
W L D L W
20 38 1 3 34 22:169 -147 -57
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Qualification Playoffs
Relegation