ENGLAND NATIONAL LEAGUE
19.09.2026 11:30
Victoria Park
Hartlepool
Match Timeline
Worthing
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
C. John
Hartlepool
🟨
31'
J. Wadham
Worthing
35'
C. Adjetey-Brew · Assist: R. Aguiar
Worthing
🔄
36'
L. Gibson ↔ C. Penman
Hartlepool
🟨
39'
D. Hutchinson
Worthing
🔄
46'
D. Hutchinson ↔ R. Coleman De-Graft
Worthing
59'
R. Aguiar
Worthing
🔄
63'
J. Nolan ↔ C. Thornton
Hartlepool
🔄
70'
C. Deeming ↔ T. Bondo
Hartlepool
🔄
71'
B. Ilunga ↔ J. Hugill
Hartlepool
🔄
71'
N. Sheron ↔ C. Popov
Hartlepool
🔄
75'
C. Kendall ↔ J. Marquez
Worthing
🔄
76'
J. Wadham ↔ S. Packham
Worthing
🔄
76'
J. Young ↔ B. Smith
Worthing
77'
W. Harris
Hartlepool
90+2'
J. Marquez · Assist: C. Adjetey-Brew
Worthing
🟨
90+3'
J. Marquez
Worthing

Hartlepool vs Worthing Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.1%
Odds 2.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.1%
2.18
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.58
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.32
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Hartlepool Win 55.1%
Draw 5.5%
Worthing Win 39.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hartlepool1.25
Worthing1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hartlepool Hartlepool
WWDLW
16 GF / 16 GA
Worthing Worthing
WLDWL
27 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
5
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hartlepool Hartlepool 13 matches
Worthing Worthing 15 matches
Hartlepool Statistic Worthing
7 Wins 7
0 Draws 5
6 Losses 3
16 Goals For 27
16 Goals Against 19
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
5 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Worthing. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Worthing having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Hartlepool Analysis

Hartlepool approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 9 points from 7 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 5:6, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Worthing Analysis

Worthing approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 7 points from 6 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 11:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 2 0 23:11 12 23
W W D W W
2 9 6 2 1 23:12 11 20
W W D W D
3 9 5 3 1 13:7 6 18
D W W W D
4 9 5 2 2 20:13 7 17
L W W D W
5 9 5 1 3 20:16 4 16
L L W W W
6 9 5 1 3 10:10 0 16
D W L L L
7 9 4 3 2 18:14 4 15
W D L L W
8 9 4 3 2 10:7 3 15
L D W W D
9 9 5 0 4 11:12 -1 15
W L L L W
10 9 5 0 4 12:15 -3 15
W W L W W
11 9 4 2 3 17:15 2 14
W W D D L
12 9 4 2 3 11:10 1 14
W L D L D
13 9 4 1 4 14:11 3 13
D W W L W
14 9 4 1 4 13:14 -1 13
L D W W L
15 9 3 2 4 13:13 0 11
W D L D L
16 9 2 4 3 16:14 2 10
L D D L W
17 9 2 3 4 11:12 -1 9
W L D W D
18 9 2 3 4 10:12 -2 9
D D W L D
19 9 3 0 6 7:11 -4 9
L L L W L
20 9 2 2 5 11:15 -4 8
L L W L W
21 9 2 2 5 16:23 -7 8
W L L D L
22 9 2 1 6 11:15 -4 7
L L W L L
23 9 1 1 7 9:23 -14 4
L W L D L
24 9 1 1 7 6:20 -14 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation