GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
10.05.2026 13:30
Volksparkstadion
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hamburger SV
Match Timeline
SC Freiburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
B. Jatta · Assist: A. Gronbaek
Hamburger SV
⚽
16'
I. Matanovic · Assist: L. Kubler
SC Freiburg
🟨
20'
Lukas Kübler
SC Freiburg
🔄
58'
J. Manzambi ↔ N. Hofler
SC Freiburg
🔄
59'
J. Beste ↔ J. Makengo
SC Freiburg
⚽
64'
L. Vuskovic
Hamburger SV
🟨
65'
Luka Vušković
Hamburger SV
🔄
65'
O. Stange ↔ R. Philippe
Hamburger SV
🔄
65'
B. Jatta ↔ F. Balde
Hamburger SV
⚽
67'
F. Balde · Assist: N. Remberg
Hamburger SV
🔄
68'
B. Ogbus ↔ P. Lienhart
SC Freiburg
🔄
68'
L. Kubler ↔ D. Scherhant
SC Freiburg
🔄
71'
M. Ginter ↔ A. Jung
SC Freiburg
🔄
80'
A. S. Lokonga ↔ Y. Poulsen
Hamburger SV
🟨
86'
Nicolás Capaldo
Hamburger SV
🟨
86'
Lucas Höler
SC Freiburg
⚽
87'
I. Matanovic · Assist: V. Grifo
SC Freiburg
🔄
90+6'
F. Vieira ↔ L. Lemke
Hamburger SV
🔄
90+6'
L. Vuskovic ↔ S. Nandja
Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 85.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
85.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Hamburger SV Win 14.2%
Draw 0%
SC Freiburg Win 85.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hamburger SV1.23
SC Freiburg1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
WWDLW
36 GF / 51 GA
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
WLDWL
70 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
20
BTTS Yes
26
18
Over 2.5
27
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 32 matches
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 46 matches
Hamburger SV Statistic SC Freiburg
8 Wins 21
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 15
36 Goals For 70
51 Goals Against 63
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
20 BTTS Yes 26
25 Over 1.5 35
18 Over 2.5 27
10 Over 3.5 15
6 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 12
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.52
12.03 Total Shots 12.85
3.75 Corners 4.28
45.5% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors SC Freiburg. Hamburger SV have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hamburger SV expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and SC Freiburg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SC Freiburg having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Hamburger SV Analysis

Hamburger SV sit 12 with 34 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 36:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Vieira (6 goals), A. S. Lokonga (5 goals), L. Vuskovic (5 goals), with creative support from F. Vieira (5 assists), Miro Muheim (4 assists), W. Mikelbrencis (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

SC Freiburg Analysis

From their first 32 matches, SC Freiburg have collected 44 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, while the 45:53 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Matanovic (8 goals), V. Grifo (7 goals), Johan Manzambi (5 goals), with creative support from Matthias Ginter (4 assists), V. Grifo (3 assists), Johan Manzambi (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hamburger SV won 3 times, SC Freiburg won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Hamburger SV's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2 / SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Hamburger SV 3, SC Freiburg 4
H2H summary: Hamburger SV wins 3, draws 6, SC Freiburg wins 6

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
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