FRANCE LIGUE 2
02.05.2026 18:00
Stade de Roudourou
Referee: E. Rosier
Guingamp
Match Timeline
Bastia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
44'
S. Nair ↔ A. Sissoko
Guingamp
51'
R. Beliandjou
Bastia
🔄
60'
J. Matumona ↔ E. Koffi
Guingamp
🔄
60'
A. Sagna ↔ F. Mbemba
Guingamp
🔄
61'
K. Sidibe ↔ Y. Demoncy
Guingamp
🔄
70'
T. Ahile ↔ Y. Njoya
Guingamp
🔄
71'
J. Eickmayer ↔ F. Bohnert
Bastia
🔄
72'
R. Beliandjou ↔ J. Sebas
Bastia
🔄
85'
A. Zaouai ↔ A. Boutrah
Bastia

Guingamp vs Bastia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 33.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
33.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guingamp Win 48.7%
Draw 19.4%
Bastia Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guingamp1.27
Bastia1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guingamp Guingamp
WWDLW
48 GF / 49 GA
Bastia Bastia
WLDWL
29 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
18
BTTS Yes
11
21
Over 2.5
7
4
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guingamp Guingamp 35 matches
Bastia Bastia 35 matches
Guingamp Statistic Bastia
12 Wins 6
10 Draws 14
13 Losses 15
48 Goals For 29
49 Goals Against 39
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
18 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 20
21 Over 2.5 7
12 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 18
4 Shots On Goal 3.67
12.36 Total Shots 11.55
5.42 Corners 4.36
56.1% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bastia. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guingamp expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bastia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bastia having the stronger overall control. Guingamp have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Guingamp Analysis

With 40 points from 32 games and a place of 11, Guingamp still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 42:47, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Louis Mafouta (15 goals), D. Gomis (4 goals), S. Kielt (4 goals), with creative support from A. Hemia (5 assists), Louis Mafouta (4 assists), G. Ott (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bastia Analysis

With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Bastia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 13 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 22:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), Joachim Eickmayer (3 goals), with creative support from Felix Tomi (2 assists), A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Guingamp won 4 times, Bastia won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Guingamp's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.6%)
Predicted formations: Guingamp 4-4-2 / Bastia 5-3-2
H2H summary: Guingamp wins 4, draws 5, Bastia wins 6

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation