Guingamp vs Bastia Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
80.6%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
17.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
33.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Guingamp
Bastia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Guingamp
35 matches
Bastia
35 matches
| Guingamp | Statistic | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 6 |
| 10 | Draws | 14 |
| 13 | Losses | 15 |
| 48 | Goals For | 29 |
| 49 | Goals Against | 39 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.83 |
| 1.4 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 18 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 25 | Over 1.5 | 20 |
| 21 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 13 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 18 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 3.67 |
| 12.36 | Total Shots | 11.55 |
| 5.42 | Corners | 4.36 |
| 56.1% | Ball Possession | 51.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bastia. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guingamp expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bastia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bastia having the stronger overall control. Guingamp have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
With 40 points from 32 games and a place of 11, Guingamp still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 42:47, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Louis Mafouta (15 goals), D. Gomis (4 goals), S. Kielt (4 goals), with creative support from A. Hemia (5 assists), Louis Mafouta (4 assists), G. Ott (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Bastia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 13 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 22:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), Joachim Eickmayer (3 goals), with creative support from Felix Tomi (2 assists), A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Guingamp won 4 times, Bastia won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Guingamp's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 60:33 | 27 | 67 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 50:31 | 19 | 62 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 59:38 | 21 | 60 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 45:37 | 8 | 58 |
D
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 45:39 | 6 | 58 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 53:35 | 18 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 49:39 | 10 | 52 |
L
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 41:31 | 10 | 51 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 48:62 | -14 | 45 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 53:45 | 8 | 43 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Guingamp
Home
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:49 | -7 | 40 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 33:39 | -6 | 39 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:44 | -6 | 37 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 37 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34:49 | -15 | 36 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 30:48 | -18 | 32 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 |
Bastia
Away
|
34 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 23:39 | -16 | 28 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
| 18 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 37:65 | -28 | 24 |
L
L
L
L
L
|