PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
Guimaraes
Match Timeline
Casa Pia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Pedro Rosas
Casa Pia
🔄
46'
L. Ofori ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🔄
60'
M. Nogueira ↔ T. Arcanjo
Guimaraes
🔄
60'
Gustavo ↔ O. Camara
Guimaraes
🔄
60'
G. Nogueira ↔ Zeega
Guimaraes
🔄
69'
D. Livramento ↔ C. Mendes
Casa Pia
🔄
74'
K. Prieto ↔ A. Conte
Casa Pia
🟨
76'
Rodrigo Abascal
Guimaraes
🟨
78'
Beni Mukendi
Guimaraes
🔄
81'
Samu ↔ A. Ndoye
Guimaraes
86'
G. Larrazabal · Assist: J. Marques
Casa Pia
🔄
90+6'
G. Larrazabal ↔ J. Fonte
Casa Pia
🔄
90+5'
↔ A. Dafe
Casa Pia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 39.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
39.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guimaraes Win 87.5%
Draw 12.6%
Casa Pia Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guimaraes1.43
Casa Pia1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guimaraes Guimaraes
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WLDWL
29 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
14
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
15
4
Shots on Goal
2.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guimaraes Guimaraes 32 matches
Casa Pia Casa Pia 32 matches
Guimaraes Statistic Casa Pia
12 Wins 5
6 Draws 11
14 Losses 16
39 Goals For 29
48 Goals Against 56
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
14 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 15
4 Shots On Goal 2.75
13.28 Total Shots 8.47
4.34 Corners 3.88
50.3% Ball Possession 41.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guimaraes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Casa Pia in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Casa Pia having the stronger overall control. Guimaraes arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 42 points compared to Casa Pia in 16 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Casa Pia. Casa Pia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Guimaraes Analysis

So far, Guimaraes have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 42 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, while the 39:48 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Casa Pia Analysis

With 26 points from 32 games and a place of 16, Casa Pia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 29:56 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (6 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Guimaraes won 2 times, Casa Pia won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Guimaraes's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 0.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Guimaraes 4-2-3-1 / Casa Pia 3-4-3
H2H summary: Guimaraes wins 2, draws 4, Casa Pia wins 3
Stats
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Goal 5
8 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 8
5 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
499 Total passes 207
418 Passes accurate 127
0.94 expected_goals 0.88
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Guimaraes
Formation
Casa Pia
Charles Silva
Charles Silva
T. Strata
T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
O. Rivas Viondi
R. Abascal
R. Abascal
F. Dias
F. Dias
G. Nogueira
G. Nogueira
Beni
Beni
M. Nogueira
M. Nogueira
Samu
Samu
N. Saviolo
N. Saviolo
Gustavo
Gustavo
P. Sequeira
P. Sequeira
J. Goulart
J. Goulart
Kaly
Kaly
D. Sousa
D. Sousa
K. Prieto
K. Prieto
L. Ofori
L. Ofori
S. Perez
S. Perez
P. Rosas
P. Rosas
G. Larrazabal
G. Larrazabal
D. Livramento
D. Livramento
J. Marques
🎯
J. Marques
Guimaraes 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
27
Charles Silva
G
66
T. Strata
D
4
O. Rivas Viondi
D
26
R. Abascal
🟨 76'
D
82
F. Dias
D
30
G. Nogueira
↓ 60'
M
16
Beni
🟨 78'
M
88
M. Nogueira
↓ 60'
M
20
Samu
↓ 81'
M
48
N. Saviolo
M
11
Gustavo
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
25
J. Castillo
G
13
J. I. Mendes
D
18
T. Arcanjo
↑ 60'
M
90
A. Ndoye
↑ 81'
F
3
M. Nobrega
D
2
Maga
D
80
R. Rocha
19
O. Camara
↑ 60'
F
50
Zeega
↑ 60'
M
Casa Pia 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
P. Sequeira
G
4
J. Goulart
D
3
Kaly
D
43
D. Sousa
D
19
K. Prieto
↓ 74'
M
80
L. Ofori
↓ 46'
M
42
S. Perez
M
75
P. Rosas
🟨 22'
M
72
G. Larrazabal
⚽ 86' ↓ 90+6'
F
10
D. Livramento
↓ 69'
F
11
J. Marques
🎯 86'
F
Substitutes
95
I. Mandic
G
6
J. Fonte
↑ 90+6'
D
32
Kiki
F
7
K. Nsona
F
21
T. Morais
F
13
K. Osundina
↑ 46'
F
5
A. Conte
↑ 74'
D
99
C. Mendes
↑ 69'
F
59
A. Dafe
↑ 90+5'
M
Last matches: Guimaraes
16.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
0
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
5
L
25.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
5
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
2
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
2
3
L
30.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Moreirense
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estoril
2
4
L
18.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
1
W
28.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
0
D
23.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
4
L
13.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
1
0
W
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
20.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
08.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
16.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
H2H: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
11.05.26
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
28.12.25
H2H
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
01.03.25
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
1
0
W
28.09.24
H2H
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
1
1
D
24.02.24
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
2
L
23.09.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
19.02.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
29.08.22
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
01.08.21
H2H
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
1
W
Last matches: Guimaraes
25.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Tondela
5
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Famalicao
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Alverca
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Estrela
2
1
W
30.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Moreirense
1
0
W
18.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.01.26
Pri
Guimaraes
Nacional
2
1
W
23.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
1
4
L
08.12.25
Pri
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
0
0
D
28.11.25
Pri
Guimaraes
AVS
4
0
W
01.11.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Benfica
0
3
L
04.10.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pri
Guimaraes
SC Braga
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Arouca
1
1
D
16.08.25
Pri
Guimaraes
Estoril
3
2
W
H2H at home: Guimaraes
11.05.26
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
01.03.25
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
1
0
W
24.02.24
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
2
L
29.08.22
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
L
Last matches: Casa Pia
20.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
0
0
D
27.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
0
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
0
D
16.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
21.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
2
1
W
06.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
4
L
27.09.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
0
4
L
15.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
2
0
W
H2H away: Casa Pia
11.05.26
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
W
01.03.25
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
1
0
L
24.02.24
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
2
W
29.08.22
H2H
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D