Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
87.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
39.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
88.6%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Guimaraes
32 matches
Casa Pia
32 matches
| Guimaraes | Statistic | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Draws | 11 |
| 14 | Losses | 16 |
| 39 | Goals For | 29 |
| 48 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.91 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.75 |
| 14 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 25 | Over 1.5 | 25 |
| 15 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 15 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 2.75 |
| 13.28 | Total Shots | 8.47 |
| 4.34 | Corners | 3.88 |
| 50.3% | Ball Possession | 41.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guimaraes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Casa Pia in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Casa Pia having the stronger overall control. Guimaraes arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 42 points compared to Casa Pia in 16 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Casa Pia. Casa Pia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
So far, Guimaraes have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 42 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, while the 39:48 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 26 points from 32 games and a place of 16, Casa Pia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 29:56 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (6 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Guimaraes won 2 times, Casa Pia won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Guimaraes's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 0.89 goals per game.
Guimaraes
2
5
8
4
5
2
Lineups
Guimaraes
Nacional
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
AVS
Guimaraes
Tondela
Guimaraes
Benfica
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Alverca
Guimaraes
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Estrela
Guimaraes
Arouca
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Estoril
Guimaraes
FC Porto
Guimaraes
Nacional
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Torreense
Casa Pia
Torreense
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Tondela
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
SC Braga
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
Alverca
Casa Pia
Benfica
Casa Pia
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Arouca
Casa Pia
Nacional
Casa Pia
FC Porto
Casa Pia
AVS
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Guimaraes
Tondela
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Guimaraes
Alverca
Guimaraes
Estrela
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Guimaraes
FC Porto
Guimaraes
Nacional
Guimaraes
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
AVS
Guimaraes
Benfica
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Arouca
Guimaraes
Estoril
Casa Pia
Torreense
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
Alverca
Casa Pia
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estoril
Casa Pia
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Nacional
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Tondela
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
Benfica
Casa Pia
SC Braga
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Arouca
Casa Pia
FC Porto
Casa Pia
AVS
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 |
Guimaraes
Home
|
34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 |
Casa Pia
Away
|
34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|