KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
88.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gucha Stars Win 28.2%
Draw 17.1%
Naivas Win 54.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gucha Stars0.86
Naivas1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gucha Stars Gucha Stars
WWDLW
25 GF / 31 GA
Naivas Naivas
WLDWL
37 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
9
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gucha Stars Gucha Stars 29 matches
Naivas Naivas 31 matches
Gucha Stars Statistic Naivas
8 Wins 13
7 Draws 8
14 Losses 10
25 Goals For 37
31 Goals Against 27
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
9 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 11
14 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Naivas's more proactive style and Gucha Stars's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Naivas having the stronger overall control. Gucha Stars have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Naivas. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gucha Stars Analysis

Gucha Stars sit 14 with 34 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 15 defeats with a 27:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Naivas Analysis

So far, Naivas have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 47 points from 31 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 37:27 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Gucha Stars won 1 times, Naivas won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Gucha Stars's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
H2H summary: Gucha Stars wins 1, draws 1, Naivas wins 0
Last matches: Gucha Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
3
2
W
07.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
23.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
16.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
1
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
18.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
1
1
D
03.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
29.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
25.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MCF
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
2
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
0
1
L
24.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
Last matches: Naivas
13.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
28.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
2
0
W
24.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
3
0
W
01.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
18.04.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
28.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
3
3
D
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
3
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
H2H: Gucha Stars vs Naivas
09.05.26
H2H
Gucha Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
17.12.25
H2H
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
1
W
Last matches: Gucha Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
3
2
W
01.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
23.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
26.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
12.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
1
1
D
25.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
2
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
10.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nairobi City Stars
2
2
D
13.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
2
3
L
30.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
2
0
W
27.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
15.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
1
W
02.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
2
3
L
25.10.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: Gucha Stars
09.05.26
H2H
Gucha Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
Last matches: Naivas
07.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
2
0
W
24.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
2
1
W
12.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
30.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
15.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
0
0
D
29.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
11.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
H2H away: Naivas
09.05.26
H2H
Gucha Stars
Naivas
0
0
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation