ECUADOR LIGA PRO
15.08.2026 21:30
Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt
Referee: Jennifer Mishel Canchingre Preciado, Ecuador
Guayaquil City FC
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
D. Coronel · Assist: J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
Libertad
24'
V. Branda
Libertad
VAR
42'
Edinson Mero
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
60'
K. Sambonino ↔ P. Mancilla
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
61'
Xavier Pineda
Libertad
🟨
61'
Dany Coronel
Libertad
62'
E. Mero · Assist: M. Bolanos
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
63'
D. Coronel ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
🔄
68'
E. Cabezas ↔ J. Quinonez
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
68'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
69'
C. Valencia ↔ J. Bravo
Libertad
78'
E. Mero · Assist: M. Bolanos
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
79'
V. Branda ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
🔄
79'
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza ↔ Y. Quinonez
Libertad
🟨
83'
Dixon Arroyo
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
87'
D. Arroyo ↔ S. Laurino
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
88'
R. Arias ↔ J. Ordonez
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
88'
P. Gonzalez ↔ D. Dorregaray
Guayaquil City FC

Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.9%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guayaquil City FC Win 34.2%
Draw 25.5%
Libertad Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guayaquil City FC0.96
Libertad1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
WWDLW
23 GF / 29 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
26 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
12
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
11
2.96
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 27 matches
Libertad Libertad 24 matches
Guayaquil City FC Statistic Libertad
8 Wins 9
8 Draws 6
11 Losses 9
23 Goals For 26
29 Goals Against 27
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
12 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 8
2.96 Shots On Goal 3.67
8.13 Total Shots 10.79
2.92 Corners 3.58
52.6% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Libertad. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Libertad look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

Guayaquil City FC are currently 11 in the standings with 28 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, while the 20:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Edinson Mero (8 goals), Damián Díaz (4 goals), Pablo González (3 goals), with creative support from Junior Ayovi (4 assists), Edinson Mero (2 assists), Damián Díaz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad are currently 9 in the standings with 30 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 24:26 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilington Branda (5 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), Antony Chére (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Guayaquil City FC won 1 times, Libertad won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Guayaquil City FC's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.5%)
Predicted formations: Guayaquil City FC 4-2-3-1 / Libertad 5-4-1
H2H summary: Guayaquil City FC wins 1, draws 2, Libertad wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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