BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Guarany de Bagé
Match Timeline
Santa Catarina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
62'
Vitor Oliveira
Guarany de Bagé

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guarany de Bagé Win 75%
Draw 0%
Santa Catarina Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guarany de Bagé0.68
Santa Catarina1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé
WWDLW
1 GF / 9 GA
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
WLDWL
9 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.2
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
1
BTTS Yes
2
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé 5 matches
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina 5 matches
Guarany de Bagé Statistic Santa Catarina
0 Wins 2
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 2
1 Goals For 9
9 Goals Against 7
0.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
1 BTTS Yes 2
3 Over 1.5 3
2 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Santa Catarina's more proactive style and Guarany de Bagé's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Guarany de Bagé have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Santa Catarina having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Santa Catarina. Santa Catarina carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 7 points while Guarany de Bagé sit 6 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Guarany de Bagé Analysis

Guarany de Bagé approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 1 points from 5 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 1:9, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Catarina Analysis

Santa Catarina come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 7 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 9:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Alex Goncalves (2 goals), Mendes (2 goals), Ze Leandro (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Guarany de Bagé won 1 times, Santa Catarina won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Guarany de Bagé's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Guarany de Bagé wins 1, draws 0, Santa Catarina wins 1
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
07.06.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
1
3
L
27.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
2
1
W
20.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
21.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
3
L
15.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
11.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
Last matches: Santa Catarina
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
0
1
L
H2H: Guarany de Bagé vs Santa Catarina
10.05.26
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
1
0
W
02.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
L
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
07.06.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
0
D
27.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
2
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
2
L
11.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
27.04.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
3
3
D
H2H at home: Guarany de Bagé
10.05.26
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
1
0
W
Last matches: Santa Catarina
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
4
4
D
05.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
0
1
L
H2H away: Santa Catarina
10.05.26
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
1
0
L

Standings

Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)