MEXICO LIGA MX
26.09.2026 23:07
Estadio Akron

Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guadalajara Chivas Win 45.3%
Draw 3.8%
Club Queretaro Win 50.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guadalajara Chivas1.26
Club Queretaro1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WWDLW
18 GF / 8 GA
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
WLDWL
16 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.45
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
5
5.78
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 12 matches
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 11 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Statistic Club Queretaro
6 Wins 6
5 Draws 3
1 Losses 2
18 Goals For 16
8 Goals Against 10
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 2
5.78 Shots On Goal 4
13.33 Total Shots 13.5
7.44 Corners 4.5
57.7% Ball Possession 40.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Club Queretaro. Guadalajara Chivas come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guadalajara Chivas expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Club Queretaro in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Queretaro having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 17 points after 8 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 15:6 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), Santiago Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), Á. Sepúlveda (2 assists), E. Álvarez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Club Queretaro Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 13 points from 7 games, Club Queretaro bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Homenchenko (2 goals), A. Ávila (2 goals), Carlo Adriano (1 goals), with creative support from S. Homenchenko (1 assists), B. Duarte (1 assists), A. Alcalá (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 5 times, Club Queretaro won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Guadalajara Chivas's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.54 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1 / Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Guadalajara Chivas wins 5, draws 6, Club Queretaro wins 2

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 9 5 3 1 17:8 9 18
D W W D W
3 8 5 2 1 17:8 9 17
D L W W W
4 9 5 0 4 16:15 1 15
L W W W L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6 9 4 2 3 13:15 -2 14
D L D L W
7 8 4 1 3 14:10 4 13
W D L L W
8 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
10 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
11 9 3 3 3 12:13 -1 12
D L W L D
12 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
13 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
W L L W D
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L L D L D
16 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)