NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Euroborg
Referee: I. Oostrom
Groningen
Match Timeline
Excelsior
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
T. de Jonge · Assist: D. van der Werff
Groningen
40'
C. Widell · Assist: E. Hansson
Excelsior
47'
Y. Taha · Assist: T. de Jonge
Groningen
🔄
56'
D. van der Werff ↔ R. Metu
Groningen
🔄
60'
E. Hansson ↔ S. Wlodarczyk
Excelsior
65'
D. Sanches Fernandes · Assist: R. Meissen
Excelsior
🔄
71'
T. Land ↔ B. Willumsson
Groningen
🔄
77'
L. Hartjes ↔ A. Carlen
Excelsior
🔄
77'
N. Naujoks ↔ J. Bergraaf
Excelsior
🔄
85'
D. Sanches Fernandes ↔ I. Bronkhorst
Excelsior
🔄
87'
Y. Taha ↔ M. Seuntjens
Groningen
🔄
87'
M. Rente ↔ T. Mercera
Groningen
🔄
88'
↔ M. van Duinen
Excelsior
90'
G. de Regt · Assist: A. Zagre
Excelsior

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Groningen Win 55.5%
Draw 17.1%
Excelsior Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Groningen1.49
Excelsior1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Groningen Groningen
WWDLW
43 GF / 40 GA
Excelsior Excelsior
WLDWL
36 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
16
BTTS Yes
19
16
Over 2.5
19
5.81
Shots on Goal
4.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Groningen Groningen 31 matches
Excelsior Excelsior 31 matches
Groningen Statistic Excelsior
12 Wins 8
6 Draws 7
13 Losses 16
43 Goals For 36
40 Goals Against 51
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
16 BTTS Yes 19
27 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 7
5.81 Shots On Goal 4.19
16.16 Total Shots 12.32
6.35 Corners 4
50.8% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Groningen's more proactive style and Excelsior's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Groningen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Excelsior in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Excelsior having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Excelsior.

Groningen Analysis

So far, Groningen have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 42 points from 31 matches. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 43:40 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Thom van Bergen (9 goals), B. Willumsson (6 goals), Y. Taha (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Taha (7 assists), Thom van Bergen (4 assists), M. Rente (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Excelsior Analysis

Excelsior approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 31 points from 31 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 36:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Noah Naujoks (9 goals), D. Sanches Fernandes (5 goals), I. Yegoian (5 goals), with creative support from G. de Regt (6 assists), D. Sanches Fernandes (3 assists), I. Yegoian (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Groningen won 8 times, Excelsior won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from Groningen's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Groningen 4-2-3-1 / Excelsior 5-4-1
Missing players: Groningen 3, Excelsior 3
H2H summary: Groningen wins 8, draws 2, Excelsior wins 5
Stats
Groningen Groningen
Excelsior Excelsior
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 8
5 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Goal 9
3 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 4
9 Shots insidebox 13
3 Shots outsidebox 5
5 Goalkeeper Saves 3
457 Total passes 367
364 Passes accurate 269
0.87 expected_goals 2.38
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Groningen
Formation
Excelsior
E. Vaessen
E. Vaessen
M. Rente
M. Rente
T. Blokzijl
T. Blokzijl
D. Janse
D. Janse
M. Peersman
M. Peersman
T. Land
T. Land
T. de Jonge
🎯
T. de Jonge
Y. Taha
Y. Taha
D. van der Werff
🎯
D. van der Werff
J. Schreuders
J. Schreuders
T. van Bergen
T. van Bergen
S. van Gassel
S. van Gassel
R. Meissen
🎯
R. Meissen
C. Widell
C. Widell
L. Schouten
L. Schouten
A. Zagre
🎯
A. Zagre
N. Naujoks
N. Naujoks
L. Hartjes
L. Hartjes
I. Yegoian
I. Yegoian
D. Sanches Fernandes
D. Sanches Fernandes
G. de Regt
G. de Regt
E. Hansson
🎯
E. Hansson
Groningen 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
E. Vaessen
G
5
M. Rente
↓ 87'
D
3
T. Blokzijl
D
4
D. Janse
D
43
M. Peersman
D
18
T. Land
↓ 71'
M
8
T. de Jonge
⚽ 3' 🎯 47'
M
10
Y. Taha
⚽ 47' ↓ 87'
M
17
D. van der Werff
🎯 3' ↓ 56'
M
14
J. Schreuders
M
26
T. van Bergen
F
Substitutes
24
D. Baron
G
13
L. Stubljar
G
20
M. Seuntjens
↑ 87'
M
9
B. Willumsson
↑ 71'
F
2
W. Prins
D
16
T. Mercera
↑ 87'
D
44
J. Dillema
M
27
R. Mendes
F
7
T. Hernes
M
15
E. van der Laan
D
34
R. Metu
↑ 56'
F
Excelsior 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
S. van Gassel
G
3
R. Meissen
🎯 65'
D
4
C. Widell
⚽ 40'
D
14
L. Schouten
D
12
A. Zagre
🎯 90'
D
10
N. Naujoks
↓ 77'
M
20
L. Hartjes
↓ 77'
M
23
I. Yegoian
M
30
D. Sanches Fernandes
⚽ 65' ↓ 85'
F
11
G. de Regt
⚽ 90'
F
7
E. Hansson
🎯 40' ↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
16
C. Raatsie
G
29
M. van Duinen
↑ 88'
F
15
S. Janssen
D
6
A. Carlen
↑ 77'
M
33
J. Bergraaf
↑ 77'
F
2
I. Bronkhorst
↑ 85'
D
9
S. Wlodarczyk
↑ 60'
F
24
G. Cairo
M
Last matches: Groningen
21.05.26
Ere
Groningen
Ajax
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ere
Groningen
Heracles
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ere
Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ere
Groningen
Feyenoord
1
3
L
11.04.26
Ere
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ere
Groningen
Telstar
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ere
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
W
13.03.26
Ere
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
07.03.26
Ere
Groningen
Ajax
3
1
W
01.03.26
Ere
Groningen
FC Volendam
2
3
L
22.02.26
Ere
Groningen
Twente
1
2
L
14.02.26
Ere
Groningen
Utrecht
1
2
L
08.02.26
Ere
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ere
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
0
2
L
25.01.26
Ere
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
1
2
L
18.01.26
Ere
Groningen
Heerenveen
2
0
W
10.01.26
Ere
Groningen
NAC Breda
0
0
D
06.01.26
Fri
Groningen
Bodo/Glimt
0
4
L
21.12.25
Ere
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ere
Groningen
FC Volendam
3
0
W
Last matches: Excelsior
17.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
FC Volendam
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
Utrecht
5
0
W
12.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heracles
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Feyenoord
1
2
L
07.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heerenveen
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
0
1
L
20.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
1
2
L
14.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
2
L
06.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
NAC Breda
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Ajax
2
2
D
24.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Twente
0
0
D
21.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
17.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Telstar
2
2
D
10.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
1
5
L
20.12.25
Ere
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
2
1
W
05.12.25
Ere
Excelsior
Groningen
0
2
L
29.11.25
Ere
Excelsior
NAC Breda
1
0
W
H2H: Groningen vs Excelsior
02.05.26
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
3
L
05.12.25
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
0
2
W
16.01.24
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
0
2
W
25.02.23
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
3
0
W
08.01.23
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
1
0
L
15.12.21
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
2
4
W
06.04.19
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
0
W
02.11.18
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
2
4
W
29.04.18
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
4
0
W
17.12.17
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
2
0
L
04.02.17
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
1
D
13.08.16
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
2
0
L
12.03.16
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
2
1
L
21.08.15
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
0
W
14.02.15
H2H
Excelsior
Groningen
1
1
D
Last matches: Groningen
10.05.26
Ere
Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ere
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
0
0
D
22.03.26
Ere
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Groningen
Ajax
3
1
W
14.02.26
Ere
Groningen
Utrecht
1
2
L
08.02.26
Ere
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven
1
2
L
25.01.26
Ere
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard
1
2
L
10.01.26
Ere
Groningen
NAC Breda
0
0
D
06.01.26
Fri
Groningen
Bodo/Glimt
0
4
L
13.12.25
Ere
Groningen
FC Volendam
3
0
W
23.11.25
Ere
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
2
2
D
02.11.25
Ere
Groningen
Twente
1
1
D
19.10.25
Ere
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
0
2
L
28.09.25
Ere
Groningen
Feyenoord
0
1
L
20.09.25
Ere
Groningen
Telstar
2
0
W
29.08.25
Ere
Groningen
Heracles
4
0
W
16.08.25
Ere
Groningen
Heerenveen
2
1
W
H2H at home: Groningen
02.05.26
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
3
L
25.02.23
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
3
0
W
06.04.19
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
0
W
29.04.18
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
4
0
W
04.02.17
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
1
D
21.08.15
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
0
W
Last matches: Excelsior
17.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
2
2
D
20.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heracles
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Feyenoord
1
2
L
20.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
1
2
L
06.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
NAC Breda
2
0
W
24.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Twente
0
0
D
21.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
10.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
1
5
L
22.11.25
Ere
Excelsior
Ajax
2
1
W
01.11.25
Ere
Excelsior
Telstar
2
2
D
26.10.25
Ere
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
0
2
L
04.10.25
Ere
Excelsior
Heerenveen
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ere
Excelsior
FC Volendam
2
1
W
24.08.25
Ere
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
4
L
09.08.25
Ere
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
0
5
L
H2H away: Excelsior
02.05.26
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
3
W
25.02.23
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
3
0
L
06.04.19
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
0
L
29.04.18
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
4
0
L
04.02.17
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
1
1
D
21.08.15
H2H
Groningen
Excelsior
2
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L

Missing Players

Groningen 3 missing
-
S. Resink
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Zawada
Missing Fixture Arm Injury
OUT
-
H. Jurjus
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Excelsior 3 missing
-
M. Jonathans
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Henderikx
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
M. Tielemans
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT