LATVIA VIRSLIGA
12.09.2026 11:00
Grobiņa
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
I. Tyshchenko
Grobiņa
🟨
28'
J. Ribeiro
Grobiņa
🔄
46'
I. Tyshchenko ↔ O. Olatunde-Matthew
Grobiņa
🔄
51'
G. Patika ↔ T. Rataj
FS Jelgava
68'
R. Melkis · Assist: R. Melkis
FS Jelgava
🟨
72'
A. Puzirevskis
Grobiņa
🔄
72'
J. Ribeiro ↔ G. Kluskins
Grobiņa
🟨
76'
K. Alekseiciks
FS Jelgava
🔄
84'
F. Hasek ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
84'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🔄
88'
A. Baydal ↔ A. Aruna
Grobiņa
🟨
88'
O. Olatunde-Matthew
Grobiņa

Grobiņa vs FS Jelgava Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.7%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.01
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.7%
1.28
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.01
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Grobiņa Win 41.9%
Draw 12.3%
FS Jelgava Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grobiņa1.22
FS Jelgava1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WWDLW
34 GF / 63 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
37 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
18
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grobiņa Grobiņa 36 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 34 matches
Grobiņa Statistic FS Jelgava
7 Wins 9
12 Draws 7
17 Losses 18
34 Goals For 37
63 Goals Against 56
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
18 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 14
11 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 4
14 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FS Jelgava. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Grobiņa expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FS Jelgava in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 24 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 20:50 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 31 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 13 defeats with a 32:47 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa won 4 times, FS Jelgava won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:19 from Grobiņa's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.46 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: Grobiņa 4-4-2 / FS Jelgava 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Grobiņa wins 4, draws 3, FS Jelgava wins 6

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 22 4 2 68:20 48 70
D W D W W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 29 10 8 11 34:33 1 38
D L D W W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L