LATVIA VIRSLIGA
29.08.2026 12:00
Referee: E. Malcevs
Grobiņa
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
21'
K. Rupeiks
Grobiņa
🟨
43'
J. Ribeiro
Grobiņa
🟨
51'
M. Sidorovs
Grobiņa
🔄
59'
D. Ayebadiepreye ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
60'
D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
70'
I. Tyshchenko ↔ A. Puzirevskis
Grobiņa
🟨
71'
R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
73'
A. Traore ↔ Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
75'
M. Corryn · Assist: A. Puzirevskis
Grobiņa
VAR
79'
M. Corryn
Grobiņa
🔄
82'
W. Mukwelle ↔ N. Barkovskis
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
89'
J. Ribeiro ↔ G. Kluskins
Grobiņa
🔄
90+3'
A. Baydal ↔ D. Dobrecovs
Grobiņa

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.1%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.1%
1.62
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.90
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.30
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Grobiņa Win 43.1%
Draw 9%
BFC Daugavpils Win 47.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grobiņa1.11
BFC Daugavpils1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WWDLW
33 GF / 62 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
40 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
18
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grobiņa Grobiņa 34 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 35 matches
Grobiņa Statistic BFC Daugavpils
6 Wins 12
12 Draws 7
16 Losses 16
33 Goals For 40
62 Goals Against 46
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
18 BTTS Yes 17
26 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 9
13 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around BFC Daugavpils's more proactive style and Grobiņa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. BFC Daugavpils carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 36 points while Grobiņa sit 8 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. BFC Daugavpils look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Grobiņa Analysis

With 21 points from 27 games and a place of 8, Grobiņa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats with a 19:50 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 36 points after 26 matches. The return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 33:31, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa won 4 times, BFC Daugavpils won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:25 from Grobiņa's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Grobiņa 4-4-2 / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Grobiņa wins 4, draws 1, BFC Daugavpils wins 8

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 30 10 8 12 35:35 0 38
L D L D W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L