ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
Blundell Park
Referee: C. Brook
Grimsby
Match Timeline
Swindon Town
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
J. Kabia
Grimsby
22'
M. Kacurri · Assist: R. Staunton
Grimsby
43'
J. Kabia · Assist: R. Staunton
Grimsby
🔄
46'
J. Knight-Lebel ↔ F. Mabete
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
T. Wilson-Brown ↔ M. Olakigbe
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
B. Bodin ↔ F. Holman
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
J. Hoilett ↔ J. McGregor
Swindon Town
58'
J. Kabia
Grimsby
🔄
61'
C. Oduor ↔ J. Walker
Grimsby
🔄
61'
H. Rodgers ↔ T. Warren
Grimsby
🔄
62'
J. Kabia ↔ C. Vernam
Grimsby
🔄
71'
A. Drinan ↔ B. Middlemas
Swindon Town
🔄
78'
J. Amaluzor ↔ D. Burns
Grimsby
🔄
78'
K. Green ↔ J. Soonsup-Bell
Grimsby
🟨
88'
Filozofe Mabete
Swindon Town
🟨
90+6'
Joel McGregor
Swindon Town

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
87.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Grimsby Win 40.5%
Draw 18.2%
Swindon Town Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grimsby1.47
Swindon Town1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grimsby Grimsby
WWDLW
79 GF / 53 GA
Swindon Town Swindon Town
WLDWL
77 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
24
BTTS Yes
28
24
Over 2.5
30
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grimsby Grimsby 48 matches
Swindon Town Swindon Town 47 matches
Grimsby Statistic Swindon Town
24 Wins 24
11 Draws 9
13 Losses 14
79 Goals For 77
53 Goals Against 57
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
24 BTTS Yes 28
33 Over 1.5 40
24 Over 2.5 30
17 Over 3.5 14
17 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 6
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.38
13.51 Total Shots 11.17
6.06 Corners 5
54.8% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Swindon Town. Grimsby come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Grimsby expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Swindon Town in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Swindon Town having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Grimsby Analysis

So far, Grimsby have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 74 points from 44 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 62:45 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Kabia (14 goals), K. Green (13 goals), C. Vernam (10 goals), with creative support from C. Vernam (10 assists), K. Green (5 assists), Darragh Burns (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Swindon Town Analysis

Swindon Town sit 6 with 75 points after 44 league matches. Their overall return of 22 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 67:51 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Drinan (22 goals), O. Palmer (8 goals), O. Clarke (6 goals), with creative support from F. Munroe (6 assists), J. Snowdon (5 assists), D. Oldaker (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 11 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Grimsby won 5 times, Swindon Town won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:28 from Grimsby's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Grimsby 4-1-4-1 / Swindon Town 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Grimsby wins 5, draws 2, Swindon Town wins 7
Stats
Grimsby Grimsby
Swindon Town Swindon Town
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
7
9 Corner Kicks 5
7 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 7
9 Shots insidebox 6
7 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
250 Total passes 408
130 Passes accurate 279
1.76 expected_goals 0.40
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Grimsby
Formation
Swindon Town
J. Smith
J. Smith
H. Rodgers
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
M. Kacurri
C. McJannet
C. McJannet
R. Staunton
🎯
R. Staunton
G. D. Turi
G. D. Turi
J. Amaluzor
J. Amaluzor
C. Oduor
C. Oduor
J. Kabia
⚽ 3
J. Kabia
K. Green
K. Green
A. Cook
A. Cook
C. Ripley
C. Ripley
W. Wright
W. Wright
J. Knight-Lebel
J. Knight-Lebel
T. Wilson-Brown
T. Wilson-Brown
J. Batty
J. Batty
T. Nichols
T. Nichols
B. Bodin
B. Bodin
A. Borland
A. Borland
J. Hoilett
J. Hoilett
A. Drinan
A. Drinan
O. Palmer
O. Palmer
Grimsby 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
31
J. Smith
G
5
H. Rodgers
↓ 61'
D
2
M. Kacurri
⚽ 22'
D
17
C. McJannet
D
16
R. Staunton
🎯 22' 🎯 43'
D
15
G. D. Turi
M
14
J. Amaluzor
↓ 78'
29
C. Oduor
↓ 61'
M
9
J. Kabia
⚽ 8' ⚽ 43' ⚽ 58' ↓ 62'
4
K. Green
↓ 78'
F
39
A. Cook
F
Substitutes
1
C. Pym
G
7
J. Walker
↑ 61'
F
21
T. Warren
↑ 61'
D
18
D. Burns
↑ 78'
M
30
C. Vernam
↑ 62'
F
3
J. Sweeney
D
10
J. Soonsup-Bell
↑ 78'
F
Swindon Town 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
C. Ripley
G
5
W. Wright
D
22
J. Knight-Lebel
↓ 46'
D
16
T. Wilson-Brown
↓ 46'
D
26
J. Batty
D
7
T. Nichols
M
31
B. Bodin
↓ 46'
M
25
A. Borland
M
30
J. Hoilett
↓ 46'
M
23
A. Drinan
↓ 71'
F
28
O. Palmer
F
Substitutes
12
L. Ward
G
3
F. Mabete
↑ 46' 🟨 88'
D
20
B. Middlemas
↑ 71'
M
29
M. Olakigbe
↑ 46'
F
21
J. Scanlon
M
24
F. Holman
↑ 46'
F
33
J. McGregor
↑ 46' 🟨 90+6'
D
Last matches: Grimsby
15.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
2
2
D
10.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Tranmere
1
1
D
21.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Cambridge United
2
1
W
18.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Gillingham
4
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Chesterfield
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crewe
3
2
W
06.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crawley Town
2
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Harrogate Town
1
3
L
21.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Barrow
5
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Oldham
0
1
L
07.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Bromley
1
1
D
03.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Notts County
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Bristol Rovers
1
3
L
18.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Walsall
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Grimsby
Wolves
0
1
L
11.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Accrington ST
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Newport County
0
0
D
Last matches: Swindon Town
04.07.26
Fri
Swindon Town
Swindon Supermarine
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Chesterfield
1
2
L
18.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
2
D
10.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Colchester
0
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Walsall
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Cambridge United
1
1
D
28.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Tranmere
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Gillingham
2
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crawley Town
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crewe
1
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barnet
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Shrewsbury
1
3
L
11.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Newport County
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Oldham
3
0
W
03.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Harrogate Town
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barrow
3
1
W
27.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Notts County
1
2
L
H2H: Grimsby vs Swindon Town
25.04.26
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
4
0
W
22.11.25
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
2
2
D
18.04.25
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
4
L
21.12.24
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
3
1
L
20.04.24
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
0
W
30.09.23
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
2
1
L
14.01.23
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
5
0
L
24.09.22
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
1
2
L
22.02.20
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
3
1
L
07.12.19
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
3
L
23.02.19
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
1
1
D
15.12.18
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
1
W
21.04.18
H2H
Swindon Town
Grimsby
0
1
W
21.11.17
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
3
2
W
Last matches: Grimsby
10.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crewe
3
2
W
03.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Harrogate Town
1
3
L
21.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Barrow
5
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Bromley
1
1
D
03.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
3
1
W
18.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Walsall
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Grimsby
Wolves
0
1
L
11.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Accrington ST
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Grimsby
Milton Keynes Dons
2
2
D
17.01.26
Lea
Grimsby
Barnet
1
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Grimsby
Weston-super-Mare
3
2
W
29.12.25
Lea
Grimsby
Shrewsbury
1
0
W
26.12.25
Lea
Grimsby
Oldham
0
0
D
13.12.25
Lea
Grimsby
Notts County
0
2
L
06.12.25
FA
Grimsby
Wealdstone
4
0
W
27.11.25
Lea
Grimsby
Tranmere
1
2
L
15.11.25
Lea
Grimsby
Chesterfield
0
1
L
01.11.25
FA
Grimsby
Ebbsfleet United
3
1
W
H2H at home: Grimsby
25.04.26
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
4
0
W
18.04.25
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
4
L
20.04.24
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
0
W
24.09.22
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
1
2
L
07.12.19
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
3
L
15.12.18
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
1
W
21.11.17
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
3
2
W
Last matches: Swindon Town
10.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Colchester
0
3
L
02.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Cambridge United
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Tranmere
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Gillingham
2
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crawley Town
2
2
D
17.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barnet
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Shrewsbury
1
3
L
03.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Harrogate Town
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Notts County
1
2
L
24.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Bromley
1
2
L
20.01.26
FA
Swindon Town
Salford City
2
3
L
29.12.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Cheltenham
2
0
W
26.12.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
L
13.12.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
3
0
W
29.11.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Chesterfield
2
1
W
15.11.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
01.11.25
FA
Swindon Town
Rotherham
2
1
W
18.10.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
4
L
04.10.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Newport County
1
0
W
20.09.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Salford City
2
3
L
H2H away: Swindon Town
25.04.26
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
4
0
L
18.04.25
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
4
W
20.04.24
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
0
L
24.09.22
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
1
2
W
07.12.19
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
0
3
W
15.12.18
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
1
L
21.11.17
H2H
Grimsby
Swindon Town
3
2
L

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation