ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
03.10.2026 14:00
Blundell Park
Grimsby
Match Timeline
Shrewsbury
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
George Lloyd · Assist: William Boyle
Shrewsbury
🟨
26'
Kevin Berkoe
Shrewsbury
🟨
50'
Isaac Fletcher
Shrewsbury
🟨
56'
Kian McMahon-Brown
Shrewsbury
🟨
58'
Cian Doyle
Grimsby
⚽
60'
Kian McMahon-Brown · Assist: William Boyle
Shrewsbury
🔄
61'
Charles Vernam ↔ Iwan Morgan
Grimsby
🔄
61'
Cian Doyle ↔ Finn Cartwright
Grimsby
🟨
74'
Josh Ruffels
Shrewsbury
⚽
75'
Finn Cartwright · Assist: Iwan Morgan
Grimsby
🟨
75'
George Lloyd
Shrewsbury
🔄
80'
Isaac Fletcher ↔ Josh Davison
Shrewsbury
🔄
80'
J. Turner-Cook ↔ will gray
Shrewsbury
🔄
90'
Jamie Walker ↔ Ryley Reynolds
Grimsby
🔄
90'
Andy Cook ↔ Sonny Finch
Grimsby
🟨
90+4'
Josh Davison
Shrewsbury

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.6%
Odds 1.68
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.6%
1.68 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.83 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Grimsby Win 86.6%
Draw 4.8%
Shrewsbury Win 8.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grimsby1.55
Shrewsbury0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grimsby Grimsby
WWDLW
26 GF / 12 GA
Shrewsbury Shrewsbury
WLDWL
14 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
7
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
5
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grimsby Grimsby 15 matches
Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 14 matches
Grimsby Statistic Shrewsbury
7 Wins 4
7 Draws 5
1 Losses 5
26 Goals For 14
12 Goals Against 18
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
7 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 5
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.75
15.13 Total Shots 13.75
6.88 Corners 5.25
54.4% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Grimsby's more proactive style and Shrewsbury's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Grimsby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Shrewsbury in 18 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shrewsbury. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Grimsby expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Shrewsbury in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shrewsbury having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Grimsby Analysis

Grimsby arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 13 points after 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 11:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Green (3 goals), G. Turi (1 goals), Iwan Morgan (1 goals), with creative support from K. Green (1 assists), G. Turi (1 assists), Iwan Morgan (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Shrewsbury Analysis

With 7 points from 7 games and a place of 18, Shrewsbury still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 5:11, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through W. Boyle (1 goals), K. Berkoe (1 goals), J. Davison (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Grimsby won 2 times, Shrewsbury won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Grimsby's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Grimsby 4-1-4-1 / Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Grimsby wins 2, draws 2, Shrewsbury wins 1

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League