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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
17.10.2026 14:00
Blundell Park
Grimsby
Match Timeline
Northampton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Douglas Tharme
Grimsby
⚽
34'
M. Warhurst · Assist: Lee Evans
Northampton
🟨
42'
Charles Vernam
Grimsby
🔄
49'
Douglas Tharme ↔ Joe Foulkes
Grimsby
🟨
54'
josh powell
Northampton
🔄
57'
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh ↔ Elliott List
Northampton
⚽
58'
Jon Guthrie · Assist: Elliott Moore
Northampton
🟥
61'
Edon Pruti
Grimsby
🔄
66'
Charles Vernam ↔ Finn Cartwright
Grimsby
🟨
72'
Jamie Walker
Grimsby
🟨
74'
Jon Guthrie
Northampton
🟨
75'
David Artell
Grimsby
🔄
78'
Iwan Morgan ↔ Andy Cook
Grimsby
🔄
78'
Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor ↔ Sonny Finch
Grimsby
🔄
78'
Jamie Walker ↔ Cian Doyle
Grimsby
🔄
80'
M. Warhurst ↔ Sam Hoskins
Northampton
🔄
80'
josh powell ↔ James Maxwell
Northampton
🔄
90+1'
Janoi Donacien ↔ Max Dyche
Northampton

Grimsby vs Northampton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.2%
1.75 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Grimsby Win 69.2%
Draw 4.6%
Northampton Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grimsby1.35
Northampton0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grimsby Grimsby
WWDLW
27 GF / 15 GA
Northampton Northampton
WLDWL
11 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
0.85
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
3
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grimsby Grimsby 17 matches
Northampton Northampton 13 matches
Grimsby Statistic Northampton
7 Wins 3
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 4
27 Goals For 11
15 Goals Against 13
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 3
5 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 7
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.38
15.1 Total Shots 10.25
6.7 Corners 5
54.9% Ball Possession 43.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Grimsby's more proactive style and Northampton's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Grimsby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 13 points compared to Northampton in 22 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Northampton. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Grimsby expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Northampton in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Northampton having the stronger overall control.

Grimsby Analysis

Grimsby are currently 9 in the standings with 13 points from 9 matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 13:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Green (3 goals), Iwan Morgan (1 goals), G. Turi (1 goals), with creative support from Iwan Morgan (2 assists), K. Green (1 assists), G. Turi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Northampton Analysis

Northampton approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 6 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with a 3:6 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (1 goals), L. Briggs (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Grimsby won 2 times, Northampton won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from Grimsby's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Grimsby 4-1-4-1 / Northampton 4-4-2
H2H summary: Grimsby wins 2, draws 3, Northampton wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League