SENEGAL LIGUE 1
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gorée Win 50.7%
Draw 16.5%
Stade de Mbour Win 32.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gorée0.89
Stade de Mbour0.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gorée Gorée
WWDLW
29 GF / 14 GA
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour
WLDWL
18 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.62
0.48
Average Goals Conceded
0.72
8
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gorée Gorée 29 matches
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour 29 matches
Gorée Statistic Stade de Mbour
11 Wins 5
14 Draws 17
4 Losses 7
29 Goals For 18
14 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.62
0.48 Avg Goals Conceded 0.72
8 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
17 Clean Sheets 15
13 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Gorée's more proactive style and Stade de Mbour's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Stade de Mbour having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Stade de Mbour. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gorée Analysis

Gorée come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 47 points from 29 matches. The record of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 29:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Stade de Mbour Analysis

Stade de Mbour sit 10 with 32 points after 29 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 17 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 18:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gorée won 6 times, Stade de Mbour won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:7 from Gorée's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.46 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
H2H summary: Gorée wins 6, draws 5, Stade de Mbour wins 2
Last matches: Gorée
22.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
13.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
0
0
D
26.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
1
0
W
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
25.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
5
0
W
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
Last matches: Stade de Mbour
22.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
2
L
13.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Ouakam
0
0
D
20.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
HLM
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AS Camberene
0
0
D
29.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Casa Sport
1
1
D
25.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Jaraaf
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Pikine
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Sonacos
2
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Génération Foot
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
La Linguère
2
2
D
15.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
1
L
08.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
0
D
25.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
0
1
L
07.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
0
2
L
H2H: Gorée vs Stade de Mbour
04.06.26
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
15.02.26
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
1
W
28.04.24
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
1
0
L
17.12.23
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
2
1
W
30.04.23
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
0
D
19.11.22
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
17.07.21
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
11.04.21
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
0
D
08.03.20
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
2
1
L
18.05.19
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
4
2
W
03.02.19
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
1
1
D
19.03.17
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
06.11.16
H2H
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
1
W
Last matches: Gorée
17.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
28.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
0
0
D
29.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
H2H at home: Gorée
04.06.26
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
17.12.23
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
2
1
W
19.11.22
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
17.07.21
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
18.05.19
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
4
2
W
19.03.17
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
Last matches: Stade de Mbour
17.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
2
L
13.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
1
0
W
20.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
HLM
1
1
D
29.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Casa Sport
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Sonacos
2
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
La Linguère
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
0
1
L
29.12.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Ouakam
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AS Camberene
1
2
L
29.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Jaraaf
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Pikine
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Génération Foot
2
0
W
H2H away: Stade de Mbour
04.06.26
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
17.12.23
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
2
1
L
19.11.22
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
L
17.07.21
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
L
18.05.19
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
4
2
L
19.03.17
H2H
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2 30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11 30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
?
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation